Can icefish (Salangidae) production be predicted?
银鱼的产量能预报吗

A discrete Logistic model was applied to icefish ( Salangidae ) populations analyzing and simulating the variation of the annual catchment production of icefish populations for four typical lakes/reservoirs such as Dianchi lake in China, it was found as evidence of chaos in a natural eco system that the parameters of icefish populations for four lakes/reservoirs fall into chaotic region under normal circumstance. The results show that: (1) The long term prediction for the production of field icefish population is unreliable because of chaotic behavior. Only the short term prediction is of necessary accuracy. (2) The strict management for the catchment of icefish is necessary in order to remain a proper quantity of parent fishes, on the other hand, controlling the growth rate by changing the catchment death rate would prevent the great fluctuation of icefish production and then obtain a rather stable yield. (3) The water pollution and other factors affecting the structures of prey, will change the intrinsic natural growth rate and maximum population capacity, furthermore affecting the icefish population.