Dynamical simulation on the uncertainty of exotic invasion
外来种入侵的不确定性动态模拟

Exotic invasiveness and community invisibility are two key factors to study the mechanism of biotic invasion. Referring to related researches, we consider that the colonization (migration or propagation), mortality and competition are the inherent essence determining successful exotic invasion. In the paper, from a new angle of considering alien species invasion as a disturbance to native community, we propose a disturbance model on biology invasion, which is based on Tilman's multispecies coexistence model. The numerical simulation discloses obvious uncertainties of species invasion. Alien species with weak colonization couldn't adapt to new habitat and is excluded out of indigenous community. On the contrary, strong alien species succeed in colonizing new habitat and develops new populations in several or decades of years, threatening indigenous populations. However, it is noticeable that exotic species maybe extinct suddenly after a successful invasion, which is another perplexing uncertainty. Besides above conclusions, the numerical simulation also provides some references to the evolution of alien-species.