Assessing the sensitivity of China water condition to global climate changes
中国水分状况对全球气候变化的敏感性分析

With the daily radiation data and monthly data of mean temperature, precipitation, relative humid, sunshine fraction and wind velocity amended Penman's method was used to calculate the potential evapotration spiration and the aridity index, at present and three prescribed climate scenarios, with temperature rise by 1.5℃, 3.0℃ and 4.5℃, and precipitation increase by 10%.The sensitivity of China water condition to global climate change was assessed.The simulated results indicate that under the three prescribed climate scenarios, the potential evaporation spiration will increase greatly with the raising of temperature. In the case of the change of aridity index, China will become a little wet under the first climate scenario, and a little dry under the third climate scenario comparing with the present situation. The water condition of China under the second climate scenario is just between the first and third Climate scenarios.