PREDICTION OF NET PRIMARY PRODUCTIVITY OF FORESTS IN CHINA IN RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE
中国森林生产力对气候变化响应的预测研究

Models of climatic productivity of forests in China were established through regression analysis of net primary productivity of forests distributing in different geographical regions versus the corresponding meteorological variables.The established models in which annual precipitation was incorporated as the principal variable indicate a very closely correlation between forest productivity and its corresponding climatic factors,allowing to simulate distribution pattern of actual forest productivity effectively.By means of GIS in conjunction with the established models,the forest productivity in response to the climate change scenario in 2030 was predicted,suggesting that the predicted geographical distribution pattern of net productivity of forests in China was the same as that of current actual patterns,i.e.forest productivity gradually decreased with the increasing latitude and from south east to north west direction within China.The predicted net primary productivity of forests,however,was found to increase at the varying degrees in different geographical regions,as compared to the current climate scenario.The percentage difference of forest productivity between under the future climate change and the current climate scenario was found to increase with the increasing latitude,being opposite to the distribution pattern of actual net primary productivity of forests.This might be attributable to larger increase in air temperature and precipitation in the high latitudes than in the low latitudes under the future climate change.