Application and comparison of generalized models and classification and regression tree in simulating tree species distribution
广义模型及分类回归树在物种分布模拟中的应用与比较

Comparison of three models: Generalized Linear Models(GLM),Generalized Additive Models(GAM) and Classification and Regression tree(CART) in simulating tree species distribution in China were done in this paper, in order to select a suitable model for simulating and predicting tree species distributions under climate change in the future. The simulating 15 tree species distributions by three models indicated that three models could simulate the tree species geographical distributions very well except Pinus tabulaeformis and Quercus liaotungensis. GAM model is the best one among them. Combining with geographical information system(GIS), the simulating effects for geographical distributions of Cyclobalanopsis glauca, Schima superba,Pinus koraiensis, and Pinus tabulaeformis were compared. The results showed that three models could simulate the geographical distributions of of Cyclobalanopsis glauca and Schima superba very well; GLM model could not simulate the geographical distribution of Pinus koraiensis very well; and three models could not simulate the geographical distribution of Pinus tabulaeformis. The relative performance of different models was discrepant among species, suggesting that the most accurate model varies between species. Moreover, the geographical distributions of typical tree species: Cyclobalanopsis glauca and Quercus mongolica under climate change were studied based on GLM model, GAM model and CART model. The simulated results of Cyclobalanopsis glauca geographical distributions by GLM model and GAM model were similar, and showed its geographical distribution would shift to the west and the north under climate change, however CART model indicated that the Cyclobalanopsis glauca geographical distributions in Southern Guangdong province and southern Guangxi province would disappear. The simulated results of Quercus mongolica geographical distributions by three models were similar, and they would shift to the west, and the expanding areas ranged from GAM model, GLM model to CART model.