Comparative analysis of the influence of climate change and nitrogen deposition on carbon sequestration in forest ecosystems in European Russia: simulation modelling approach

An individual-based simulation model, EFIMOD, was used to simulate the response of forest ecosystems to climate change and additional nitrogen deposition. The general scheme of the model includes forest growth depending on nitrogen uptake by plants and mineralization of soil organic matter. The mineralization rate is dependent on nitrogen content in litter and forest floor horizons. Three large forest areas in European Central Russia with a total area of about 17 000 km2 in distinct environmental conditions were chosen. Simulations were carried out with two climatic scenarios (ambient climate and climate change) and different levels of nitrogen deposition (ambient value and increase by 6 and 12 kg N ha 1 yr 1). The simulations showed that increased nitrogen deposition leads to increased productivity of trees, increased organic matter content in organic soil horizons, and an increased portion of deciduous tree species. For the climate change scenario, the same effects on forest productivity and similar shifts in species composition were predicted but the accumulation of organic matter in soil was decreased.