Chemical weather forecasting: a new concept of integrated modelling

During the last decade a new field of atmospheric modelling – the chemical weather forecasting (CWF) – is quickly developing and growing. However, in the most of the current studies and publications, this field is considered in a simplified concept of the off-line running chemical transport models with operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) data as a driver. A new concept and methodology considering the chemical weather as two-way interacting meteorological weather and chemical composition of the atmosphere is suggested and discussed. The on-line integration of mesometeorological models and atmospheric aerosol and chemical transport models gives a possibility to utilize all meteorological 3-D fields in the chemical transport model at each time step and to consider feedbacks of air pollution (e.g. urban aerosols) on meteorological processes/climate forcing and then on the atmospheric chemical composition. This very promising way for future atmospheric simulation systems (as a part of and a step to Earth System Modelling) will lead to a new generation of models for meteorological, environmental and chemical weather forecasting. The methodology how to realise the suggested integrated CWF concept is demonstrated on the example of the European Enviro-HIRLAM integrated system. The importance of different feedback mechanisms for CWF is also discussed in the paper.