Trend Prediction of Seismicity in Lower Reaches of Yangtze River – Yellow Sea (Y-Y) Seismic Belt in 2011-2020

In this study, seismic activity trend of lower reaches of Yangtze River – Yellow Sea (Y-Y) seismic belt during 2011-2020 is predicted based on statistic analysis of historical earthquake data and seismic activity analysis of recent mid-strong earthquakes occurred in this area. Three potential seismic risk zones are indicated where the destructive earthquakes might occur which will cause damages in that area. The three zones and the estimated magnitudes of potential earthquakes are: 1) southern sags of Southern Yellow sea and coastal regions, Ms ≥ 6; 2) Yangtze estuary and its eastern sea area, Ms ≥ 5; 3) areas along Changshu city to Taicang city, Ms ≥ 5. Seismic parametric study of that area is performed to support our conclusions.