Determination of the Risk Function for Survivors Using Beta Pert Method

In emergency at sea the most important is to start the rescue action as fast as possible, whereas the decision to terminate the action, in case the survivors have not been found, is made by the coordinator on the basis of his practical experience. To estimate the level of risk it is necessary to face the problem of lack of credible statistical data. The paper presents a new concept which allow to calculate the risk, taking into account data uncertainty. The method and probability model are presented and discussed.