全部 标题 作者
关键词 摘要

OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
费用:99美元

查看量下载量

相关文章

更多...
PLOS Medicine  2006 

A Comparative Analysis of Influenza Vaccination Programs

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.0030387

Full-Text   Cite this paper   Add to My Lib

Abstract:

Background The threat of avian influenza and the 2004–2005 influenza vaccine supply shortage in the United States have sparked a debate about optimal vaccination strategies to reduce the burden of morbidity and mortality caused by the influenza virus. Methods and Findings We present a comparative analysis of two classes of suggested vaccination strategies: mortality-based strategies that target high-risk populations and morbidity-based strategies that target high-prevalence populations. Applying the methods of contact network epidemiology to a model of disease transmission in a large urban population, we assume that vaccine supplies are limited and then evaluate the efficacy of these strategies across a wide range of viral transmission rates and for two different age-specific mortality distributions. We find that the optimal strategy depends critically on the viral transmission level (reproductive rate) of the virus: morbidity-based strategies outperform mortality-based strategies for moderately transmissible strains, while the reverse is true for highly transmissible strains. These results hold for a range of mortality rates reported for prior influenza epidemics and pandemics. Furthermore, we show that vaccination delays and multiple introductions of disease into the community have a more detrimental impact on morbidity-based strategies than mortality-based strategies. Conclusions If public health officials have reasonable estimates of the viral transmission rate and the frequency of new introductions into the community prior to an outbreak, then these methods can guide the design of optimal vaccination priorities. When such information is unreliable or not available, as is often the case, this study recommends mortality-based vaccination priorities.

References

[1]  Govaert TME, Thijs CT, Masurel N, Sprenger MJ, Dinant GJ, et al. (1994) The efficacy of influenza vaccination in elderly individuals. JAMA 272: 1661–1665.
[2]  Brandriss MW, Betts RF, Mathur U, Douglas RG Jr (1981) Responses of elderly subjects to monovalent A(HINI) and trivalent A(HINI)/A(H3N2)/B vaccines. Am Rev Respir Dis 124: 681–684.
[3]  Longini IM, Koopman JS, Monto AS, Fox JP (1982) Estimating household and community transmission parameters of influenza. Am J Epidemiol 115: 736–751.
[4]  Fox JP, Hall CE, Cooney MK, Foy HM (1982) Influenza virus infections in Seattle families, 1975–1979. Am J Epidemiol 116: 212–227.
[5]  Jennings LC, Miles JAR (1978) A study of acute respiratory disease in the community of Port Chalmers. J Hyg (Lond) 81: 67–75.
[6]  Taber LH, Paredes A, Glezen WP, Couch RB (1982) Infection with influenza A/Victoria virus in Houston families. J Hyg (Lond) 86: 303–313.
[7]  Glezen WP (1996) Emerging infections: Pandemic influenza. Epidemiol Rev 18: 64–76.
[8]  Longini IM Jr, Halloran ME, Nizam A, Yang Y (2004) Containing pandemic influenza with antiviral agents. Am J Epidemiol 159: 623–633.
[9]  Longini IM, Halloran ME (2005) Strategy for distribution of influenza vaccine to high-risk groups and children. Am J Epidemiol 161: 303–306.
[10]  Monto AS, Koopman JS, Longini IM Jr (1985) The Tecumseh study of illness. XIII. Influenza infection and disease. Am J Epidemiol 121: 811–822.
[11]  Reichart TA, Sugaya N, Fedson DS, Glezen WP, Simonsen L, et al. (2001) The Japanese experience with vaccinating school-children against influenza. N Engl J Med 344: 889–896.
[12]  Harper SA, Fukuda K, Uyeki TM, Cox NJ, Bridges CB, et al. (2004) Prevention and control of influenza: Recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP). MMWR 53: 1–40.
[13]  Dezso Z, Barabasi AL (2001) Halting viruses in scale-free networks. Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys 65: 055103.
[14]  Pastor-Satorras R, Vespignani A (2001) Immunization of complex networks. Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys 65: 036104.
[15]  Woolhouse ME, Dye C, Etard JF, Smith T, Charlwood JD, et al. (1997) Heterogeneities in the transmission of infectious agents: Implications for the design of control programs. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 94: 338–342.
[16]  Meyers LA, Newman MEJ, Martin M, Schrag S (2003) Applying network theory to epidemics: Control measures for outbreaks. Emerg Infect Dis 9: 204–210.
[17]  Meyers LA, Pourbohloul B, Newman MEJ, Skowronski DM, Brunham RC (2005) Network theory and SARS: Predicting outbreak diversity. JTB 232: 71–81.
[18]  Pourbohloul B, Meyers LA, Skowronski DM, Krajden M, Patrick DM, et al. (2005) Modeling Control Strategies of Respiratory Pathogens. Emerg Infect Dis 11: 1249–1256.
[19]  Meyers LA, Newman MEJ, Pourbohloul B (2006) Predicting epidemics on directed contact networks. J Theor Biol 240: 400–418.
[20]  Thompson WW, Shay DK, Weintraub E (2004) Influenza-associated hospitalizations in the United States. JAMA 292: 1333–1340.
[21]  Thompson WW, Shay DK, Weintraub E, Brammer L, Cox N, et al. (2003) Mortality associated with influenza and respiratory syncytial virus in the United States. JAMA 289: 179–186.
[22]  Luk J, Gross P, Thompson WW (2001) Observations on mortality during the 1918 influenza pandemic. Clin Infect Dis 33: 1375–1378.
[23]  Dauer CC, Serfling RE (1961) Mortality from influenza, 1957–1958 and 1959–1960. Am Rev Respir Dis 83(Suppl 2): 15–26.
[24]  Olsen DR, Simonsen L, Edelson PJ, Morse SS (2005) Epidemiological evidence of an early wave of the 1918 influenza pandemic in New York City. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 102: 11059–11063.
[25]  Paul Y (2004) Herd immunity and herd protection. Vaccine 22: 301–302.
[26]  Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (2005) Interim estimates of populations targeted for influenza vaccination from 2002 National Health Interview Survey data and estimates for 2004 based on influenza vaccine shortage priority groups. Atlanta (Georgia): Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 2 p.
[27]  Cauchemez S, Carrat F, Viboud C, Valleron AJ, Boelle PY (2004) A Bayesian MCMC approach to study transmission of influenza: Application to household longitudinal data. Stat Med 23: 3469–3487.
[28]  Newman MEJ (2002) Spread of epidemic disease on network. Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys 66: 016128.
[29]  Frost WH (1920) Statistics of influenza morbidity: With special reference to certain factors in case incidence. Public Health Rep 36: 584–597.
[30]  Ferguson NM, Cummings DA, Cauchemez S, Fraser C, Riley S, et al. (2005) Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia. Nature 437: 209–214.
[31]  Hethcote HW (2000) The mathematics of infectious diseases. SIAM Rev 42: 599–653.
[32]  Grais RF, Ellis JH, Kress A, Glass GE (2004) Modeling the spread of annual influenza epidemics in the U.S.: The potential role of air travel. Health Care Manag Sci 7: 127–134.
[33]  Noble GR (1982) Epidemiological and clinical aspects of influenza. In: Beare AS, editor. Basic and applied influenza research. Boca Raton (Florida): CRC Press. pp. 11–50.
[34]  Patel R, Longini IM, Halloran ME (2005) Finding optimal vaccination strategies for pandemic influenza using genetic algorithms. J Theor Biol 234: 201–212.
[35]  Mills CE, Robins JM, Lipsitch M (2004) Transmissibility of 1918 pandemic influenza. Nature 432: 904–906.
[36]  Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (2000) Flu season 2000–01: Flu vaccine supply. Atlanta (Georgia): Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Available: http://www.cdc.gov/od/oc/media/pressrel/?r2k0622a.htm. Accessed 25 March 2005.
[37]  Cauchemez S, Boelle PY, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM, Thomas G, et al. (2006) Real-time estimates in early detection of SARS. Emerg Infect Dis 12: 110–113.

Full-Text

Contact Us

service@oalib.com

QQ:3279437679

WhatsApp +8615387084133