Weakening of the demographic effect and consolidation of a new party system: evidence for the 2009 Uruguayan elections

between the elections of 1984 and 2004 the uruguayan party system experienced a gradual but also deep transformation. the new party system that emerged in 2004, constituted by two large -formal or informal- coalitions (a new two-party system), can be explained by long-term trends (the demographic change of the electorate) and electoral conjunctures. the decrease of frente amplio's vote turnout between 2004 and 2009 can be explained by the weakening of the "demographic effect" and by the relatively significant transfer of votes, from the left coalition to the other parties. despite those changes, the recent election seems to have consolidated the party system that emerged from the previous election, which is likely to remain over the next years.