Mortalidad por influenza y neumonía. Tendencia, estacionalidad y pronósticos. Jagüey Grande, 2002-2010

the influenza and the pneumonia are one of the first causes of morbimortality around the world. in cuba , they are the fourth cause of death; but the magnitude of the health problem is bigger because it is hidden behind other death causes and is not registered in the statistics. it is important to know its magnitude, tendency, behavioral characteristics and prognosis for the surveillance and inclusion when evaluating actions for prevention and control. we carried out a descriptive research of temporal mortality series for influenza and pneumonia as basic causes, hidden cause or both, called -total mortality-. we reviewed the decease medical certificates of the 3 433 deceased persons who lived in jagüey grande, in the period 2002-2010. in 1 127 of them, the influenza and the pneumonia are registered as morbid events that got involved in the decease, and in 323, they were registered as the main causes of death. we formed three time series, analyzing the magnitude and tendency. the total mortality is described as a monthly variability, seasonal, and we predict the behavior for 2011. we use the techniques recommended for the analysis of temporal series, including the arima model for the prognoses. the mortality tendency by influenza and pneumonia as basic cause is descendent, while as hidden cause and as total cause is increasing. we did not find an open seasonal behavior of the total mortality series. we also make monthly prognoses for 2011 .