Tendencias y pronósticos de la tuberculosis, desafíos en etapa de eliminación en La Habana

objectives: to describe the variation and the trend of new tuberculosis case reports in havana from 1995 to 2010, as well as their projection and occurrence for 2011-2013. methods: a time series study was conducted, and the annual total and mean variation percentages of rates by clinical and bacteriological categories, age, municipal distribution and tb/hiv co-infection were analyzed. estimation of projections by using two-parameter exponential smoothing techniques was made. results: the rate of new reported tb cases decreased from 16.8 in 1995 to 9.5 per 100 000 inhabitants in 2010 (43.5 % and 2.9 % of annual total variation and mean variation respectively). the rate declined by 80 % in the municipalities and in 15-64 and 3 65 years age groups. habana vieja and centro habana municipalities kept the highest rates throughout the whole period. tb/hiv coinfection notification increased from 3 out of 369 (0.8 %) cases in 1995 to 37 out of 202 (18.3 %) cases in 2010. a slight increase was estimated for the 2011-2013 period (9.5; 10.0; 10.5 per 100 000 population respectively) in addition to continuous rise of the number of cases with tb/hiv co-infection. conclusions: the tb trend showed a steady decline in havana from 1995 to 2010, with substantial reduction in the study period, except for tb/hiv co-infection in which the number of cases increases. the tb case report rates are within the expected values, although slightly above the predictions.