the objective of the present study is to estimate the economy growth rate in the context of full use of the productive resources. time series univariete models, including a deterministic tendency (with mean breaks), and a space-state model that considers a stochastic tendency and a cyclic component, estimated by kalman′s filter were used. the cyclic component is calculated with and without regime chages (markov-switching models), according to friedman′s idea -plucking model. the results indicate that the chilean economy potential growth rate would be greater than 4% annually, accompanied by economic asymmetric cycles.
