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?CUáL ES EL CRECIMIENTO DE LARGO PLAZO DE LA ECONOMíA CHILENA? UNA RESPUESTA FORMAL PARA UNA ANTIGUA PREGUNTA

Keywords: economy, cycles, growth tendency, kalman′s filter, chile.

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Abstract:

the objective of the present study is to estimate the economy growth rate in the context of full use of the productive resources. time series univariete models, including a deterministic tendency (with mean breaks), and a space-state model that considers a stochastic tendency and a cyclic component, estimated by kalman′s filter were used. the cyclic component is calculated with and without regime chages (markov-switching models), according to friedman′s idea -plucking model. the results indicate that the chilean economy potential growth rate would be greater than 4% annually, accompanied by economic asymmetric cycles.

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