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Evolution of the Number of Students in Elementary and Secondary School in Portugal and Population Ageing

DOI: 10.4236/jss.2017.57008, PP. 112-127

Keywords: Mathematical Model, Structured Class, Student Population Evolution, Population Ageing

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Abstract:

In this work, we present an application of a mathematical model structured in classes (see [1]) for the study of the influence of population ageing in the evolution of the number of students in elementary school and in secondary school in Portugal, from 1995/96 to 2014/15 (see [2]). Based on historical data, some scenarios of projection are presented, with the aim of quantifying the young student population and its relation with the structure of the population age for the next school years in Portugal (from 2016/2017 to 2020/2021), in the various study cycles. Furthermore, we make a comparative analysis between the projection results presented here and in references [3] and [4]. The dynamic of the model comprises two stages: the first one represents the flow of students that go from one school year to the next, as well as the flow of students that enter or leave the educational system in a certain cycle of studies. The second stage represents the flow of students that go to the next cycle of studies. The simulations were done using Matlab.

References

[1]  Pereira, E., Rosa, C. and Silva, J.A.L. (2014) A Model Structured in Classes for the Study of Student Population Evolution. Journal of Shanghai University (Natural Science Edition), 20, 127-137.
http://www.oriprobe.com/journals/shdxxb/2014_2.html
[2]  General Direction of Statistics of the Ministry of Education and Science in Portugal (DGEEC) (2007/2008-2014/2015) Education Statistics.
http://www.dgeec.mec.pt/np4/96/
[3]  Castro, L., Duarte, J., Nóvoas, D. and Martins, P. (2013) Projection Model for the Number of Students in Portugal—Effects of the Extension of Compulsory, 1-6.
http://www.dgeec.mec.pt/np4/PREVISOES/
[4]  General Direction of Statistics of the Ministry of Education and Science in Portugal (DGEEC) (2016) Projection for the Number of Students in Portugal by Regions, 2015-2021. Portugal.
http://www.dgeec.mec.pt/np4/PREVISOES/
[5]  Education Planning and Statistics of Portugal (INE) (2009) 50 Years of Education Statistics. Vol. 1, 2, 3.
http://www.dgeec.mec.pt/np4/172/
[6]  Statistics of Portugal (INE), Population Estimates, Population Projections (2012-2060), Portugal.
https://www.ine.pt/xportal/xmain?xpgid=ine_main&xpid=INE
[7]  Castro, L., Duarte, J., Nóvoas, D. and Martins, P. (2014) Projection for the Number of Students in Portugal by Regions, 2013-2019, 1-15.
http://www.dgeec.mec.pt/np4/PREVISOES/

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