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"Grow and multiply": social development, birth rates and demographic transition in the Municipality of S?o Paulo, Brazil, time-series for 1901-94

DOI: 10.1590/S1415-790X1998000100007

Keywords: mortality rate, infant mortality, fetal death, life expectancy, birth rate, time-series, population dynamics, municipality of s?o paulo, brazil.

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this study reports the construction of time-series related to standardized mortality rate, proportional mortality ratio of swaroop and uemura, infant mortality rate, fetal death rate, expectation of life at birth and birth rate for the city of s?o paulo, sp, brazil, from 1901 to 1994. in order to determine the structural variation of these measures, the model, forecast and correlation of these series were submitted to statistical analysis. the results obtained were compared to the historical analysis of the major socioe-conomic phenomena during this period in an effort to explain populational movements in the city, with emphasis on the slow and late nature of the process of demographic transition in the city. it was concluded that time-series analysis for demographic measures is efficient in many ways: by allowing the application of statistical methodology to the human sciences, by passing the difficulties inherent in the characteristics of these values (serial correlation, heteroscedasticity, multicollinearity and non-normality of forecast error distribution), by integrating quantitative analysis with the historical interpretation of the phenomena approached, by projecting estimates of future trends on the basis of the behavior of the variables analyzed, and by systematizing the methodology for application in future studies of social research.


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