Urban spatial evolution is shaped by a complex interplay of anthropogenic activities and environmental dynamics, influenced by physical, socioeconomic, and regulatory factors. This study focuses on understanding the driving forces behind urban spatial evolution in Lagos, Nigeria, between 2000 and 2020. Utilizing quantitative analysis methods, particularly Pearson correlation coefficients, the study investigates correlations between land use/land cover changes and various factors, including population, economic indicators (GDP, gross output value of road transport, gross output value of agriculture, gross industrial output value), transport infrastructure (road network expansion), demographic trends (immigrant population), climatic variables (temperature, rainfall), and urbanization rate. Pearson correlation coefficients were computed to analyze the correlation between LULC changes and the selected factors. Results indicate that population growth emerges as the primary driver of urban spatial evolution, followed by economic activities, particularly GDP and gross output values of various sectors. Population growth is strongly linked to urban development (r = 0.982) and reduction in natural habitats (r = -0.942). Additionally, transport infrastructure expansion and demographic shifts contribute significantly to the increase in built-up areas and decrease in vegetation. Also, climatic factors such as temperature and rainfall exhibit moderate to strong correlations with LULC changes. This study underlined the correlation between human activities and environmental dynamics in shaping urban spatial evolution; therefore, it is recommended that sustainable urban development policies be implemented, focusing on preserving green spaces, integrating nature-based solutions, and engaging stakeholders to balance population growth with environmental conservation.
Cite this paper
Gilbert, K. M. and Shi, Y. (2024). Quantitatively Analyzing the Driving Factors of Urban Spatial Evolution in Lagos (2000-2020). Open Access Library Journal, 11, e1303. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/oalib.1111303.
Abubakar, I.R., Lawanson, T.O. and Usman, A.S. (2020) Urban Planning Practices in Lagos. In: Rukmana, D., Ed., The Routledge Handbook of Planning Megacities in the Global South, Routledge, London, 382-396.
https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003038160-28
Adam, A.R., Takyi, S.A., Amponsah, O. and Kyei, K.O.B. (2023) Rethinking Sustainable Urban Management: Effects of Urbanization on the Socio-Spatial Structure of the Tamale Metropolis. Urban Governance, 3, 292-303.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ugj.2023.06.003
Adedeji, I. (2023) Nigerian Urbanization and the Significance of Affordable Housing. Journal of Service Science and Management, 16, 351-368.
https://doi.org/10.4236/jssm.2023.163020
Aggarwal, R.M. and Haglund, L. (2019) Advancing Water Sustainability in Megacities: Comparative Study of S？o Paulo and Delhi Using a Social-Ecological System Framework. Sustainability, 11, Article No. 5314.
https://doi.org/10.3390/su11195314
Alademomi, A.S., Okolie, C.J., Daramola, O.E., Agboola, R.O. and Salami, T.J. (2020) Assessing the Relationship of LST, NDVI and EVI with Land Cover Changes in the Lagos Lagoon Environment. Quaestiones Geographicae, 39, 111-123.
https://doi.org/10.2478/quageo-2020-0025
Allam, Z., Jones, D. and Thondoo, M. (2020) Cities and Climate Change: Climate Policy, Economic Resilience and Urban Sustainability. Springer Nature, Berlin.
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-40727-8_1
Asuquo Enoh, M., Ebere Njoku, R. and Chinenye Okeke, U. (2023) Modeling and Mapping the Spatial-Temporal Changes in Land Use and Land Cover in Lagos: A Dynamics for Building a Sustainable Urban City. Advances in Space Research, 72, 694-710. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2022.07.042
Auwalu, F.K. and Bello, M. (2023) Exploring the Contemporary Challenges of Urbanization and the Role of Sustainable Urban Development: A Study of Lagos City, Nigeria. Journal of Contemporary Urban Affairs, 7, 175-188.
https://doi.org/10.25034/ijcua.2023.v7n1-12
Ayeni, A.O., Aborisade, A.G., Onuminya, T.O., Soneye, A.S.O. and Ogundipe, O.T. (2023) Urban Development in Africa and Impact on Biodiversity. Current Landscape Ecology Reports, 8, 73-89. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40823-023-00086-x
Bae, S. and Chang, H. (2019) Urbanization and Floods in the Seoul Metropolitan Area of South Korea: What Old Maps Tell Us. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 37, Article ID: 101186. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101186
Bryan, G., Glaeser, E. and Tsivanidis, N. (2020) Cities in the Developing World. Annual Review of Economics, 12, 273-297.
https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-080218-030303
Chant, S., Moser, C. and McIlwaine, C. (2015) Cities, Slums and Gender in the Global South: Towards A Feminised Urban Future. Routledge, London.
https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315862996
Chen, Y., Su, X. and Zhou, Q. (2021). Study on the Spatiotemporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Urban Resilience in the Yellow River Basin. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 18, Article No. 10231.
https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph181910231
Cobbinah, P.B. and Gaisie, E. (2023) Reimagining Urban Planning in Africa. 2nd Edition, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009389457
Uleme, C.M. (2021) Slum Upgrading and the Rental Housing Sector: A Study of Landlord-Tenant Relationships in a Lagos (Nigeria) Slum. Ph.D. Thesis, University of Northampton, Northamptonshire.
http://nectar.northampton.ac.uk/id/eprint/19213
Da Encarna？？o Paiva, A.C., Nascimento, N., Rodriguez, D.A., Tomasella, J., Carriello, F. and Rezende, F.S. (2020) Urban Expansion and Its Impact on Water Security: The Case of the Paraíba Do Sul River Basin, S？o Paulo, Brazil. Science of the Total Environment, 720, Article ID: 137509.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137509
Dai, X., Gao, Y., He, X., Liu, T., Jiang, B., Shao, H. and Yao, Y. (2021) Spatial-Temporal Pattern Evolution and Driving Force Analysis of Ecological Environment Vulnerability in Panzhihua City. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28, 7151-7166. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-11013-6
Faisal Koko, A., Yue, W., Abdullahi Abubakar, G., Hamed, R. and Noman Alabsi, A.A. (2021) Analyzing Urban Growth and Land Cover Change Scenario in Lagos, Nigeria Using Multi-Temporal Remote Sensing Data and GIS to Mitigate Flooding. Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk, 12, 631-652.
https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2021.1887940
Freire, M. (2006) Urban Planning: Challenges in Developing Countries. International Congress on Human Development, Madrid, 1-14.
https://www.academia.edu/15344455/URBAN_PLANNING_CHALLENGES_IN_DEVELOPING_COUNTRIES
Grangxabe, X.S., Maphanga, T., Madonsela, B.S., Gqomfa, B., Phungela, T.T., Malakane, K.C., Thamaga, K.H. and Angwenyi, D. (2023) The Escalation of Informal Settlement and the High Levels of Illegal Dumping Post-Apartheid: Systematic Review. Challenges, 14, Article No. 38. https://doi.org/10.3390/challe14030038
Gu, D., Andreev, K. and Dupre, M.E. (2021) Major Trends in Population Growth around the World. China CDC Weekly, 3, 604-613.
https://doi.org/10.46234/ccdcw2021.160
Idowu, D. and Zhou, W. (2021) Land Use and Land Cover Change Assessment in the Context of Flood Hazard in Lagos State, Nigeria. Water, 13, Article No. 1105.
https://doi.org/10.3390/w13081105
Jabareen, Y. (2015) City Planning Deficiencies & Climate Change—The Situation in Developed and Developing Cities. Geoforum, 63, 40-43.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2015.05.017
Khudhair, H.Y., Mardani, A., Albayati, Y., Lootah, S.E. and Streimikiene, D. (2020) The Positive Role of the Tourism Industry for Dubai City in the United Arab Emirates. Contemporary Economics, 14, 604-619. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3846865
Lee, J., Babcock, J., Pham, T. S., Bui, T.H. and Kang, M. (2023) Smart City as a Social Transition towards Inclusive Development through Technology: A Tale of Four Smart Cities. International Journal of Urban Sciences, 27, 75-100.
https://doi.org/10.1080/12265934.2022.2074076
Lin, D., Broere, W. and Cui, J. (2022) Metro Systems and Urban Development: Impacts and Implications. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology, 125, Article ID: 104509. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tust.2022.104509
Liong, J.T., Leitner, H., Sheppard, E., Herlambang, S. and Astuti, W. (2020) Space Grabs: Colonizing the Vertical City. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, 44, 1072-1082. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-2427.12949
Mansourmoghaddam, M., Ghafarian Malamiri, H.R., Rousta, I., Olafsson, H. and Zhang, H. (2022) Assessment of Palm Jumeirah Island’s Construction Effects on the Surrounding Water Quality and Surface Temperatures during 2001-2020. Water, 14, Article No. 634. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14040634
Nyangon, J. (2020) Smart Energy Frameworks for Smart Cities: The Need for Polycentrism. In: Augusto, J.C., Ed., Handbook of Smart Cities, Springer, Berlin, 1-33.
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-15145-4_4-2
Obiahu, O.H., Yan, Z. and Uchenna, U.B. (2021) Spatiotemporal Analysis of Land Use Land Cover Changes and Built-Up Expansion Projection in Predominantly Dystric Nitosol of Ebonyi State, Southeastern, Nigeria. Environmental Challenges, 4, Article ID: 100145. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envc.2021.100145
Olanrewaju, S.D. and Adegun, O.B. (2021) Urban Sprawl and Housing: A Case for Densification in Nigerian Cities. In: Nubi, T.G., et al., Eds., Housing and SDGs in Urban Africa, Springer, Berlin, 287-299.
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-33-4424-2_16
Onyenechere, E.C., Areola, A.A., Asikogu, L.O. and Chikwendu, L. (2023) Spatial Ordering of Informal Sector Activities in African Cities: Perspectives and Lessons from the Development of Informal Sector in Nigeria. South African Geographical Journal, 105, 306-328. https://doi.org/10.1080/03736245.2022.2113558
Shi, L. (2021) from Progressive Cities to Resilient Cities: Lessons from History for New Debates in Equitable Adaptation to Climate Change. Urban Affairs Review, 57, 1442-1479. https://doi.org/10.1177/1078087419910827
Slovic, A.D., Tomasiello, D.B., Giannotti, M., De Fatima Andrade, M. and Nardocci, A.C. (2019) The Long Road to Achieving Equity: Job Accessibility Restrictions and Overlapping Inequalities in the City of S？o Paulo. Journal of Transport Geography, 78, 181-193. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2019.06.003
Surya, B., Ahmad, D.N.A., Sakti, H.H. and Sahban, H. (2020) Land Use Change, Spatial Interaction, and Sustainable Development in the Metropolitan Urban Areas, South Sulawesi Province, Indonesia. Land, 9, Article No. 95.
https://doi.org/10.3390/land9030095
Titilayo, J. (2023) Enclave Urbanism and Infrastructure Outcomes: The Eko Atlantic City and Urban Sustainability Issues in Lagos, Nigeria. Journal of Contemporary Urban Affairs, 7, 175-188. https://doi.org/10.25034/ijcua.2023.v7n1-12
Wang, Q. and Wang, H. (2022) Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Evolution Relationships between Land-Use/Land Cover Change and Landscape Pattern in Response to Rapid Urban Sprawl Process: A Case Study in Wuhan, China. Ecological Engineering, 182, Article ID: 106716. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoleng.2022.106716
Watson, V. (2007) Urban Planning and Twenty-First Century Cities: Can It Meet the Challenge? Global Urban Poverty: Setting the Agenda. Washington DC.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/288846254_Urban_planning_and_twenty-first_century_cities_Can_it_meet_the_challenge
Watson, V. (2009) The Planned City Sweeps the Poor Away: Urban Planning and 21st Century Urbanisation. Progress in Planning, 72, 151-193.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.progress.2009.06.002
Wu, Q., Guo, R., Luo, J. and Chen, C. (2021) Spatiotemporal Evolution and the Driving Factors of PM2.5 in Chinese Urban Agglomerations between 2000 and 2017. Ecological Indicators, 125, Article ID: 107491.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.107491
Zhou, H. and Gao, H. (2020) The Impact of Urban Morphology on Urban Transportation Mode: A Case Study of Tokyo. Case Studies on Transport Policy, 8, 197-205. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cstp.2018.07.005
Zhou, Y., Li, X., Chen, W., Meng, L., Wu, Q., Gong, P. and Seto, K.C. (2022) Satellite Mapping of Urban Built-Up Heights Reveals Extreme Infrastructure Gaps and Inequalities in the Global South. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 119, E2214813119. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2214813119
