Projection of Socio-Economic and Climate Scenarios’ Impacts on Food Security in West Africa: Case of Mali and Burkina Faso

Variation in cropping areas’ size and food security is a major problem facing Mali and Burkina Faso. The growth of agricultural production, especially of staple crops, is a key element of food security. Maize, millet and sorghum are among the most widely grown cereal crops in West Africa [1]. Specifically, global statistics from FAOSTAT, show that more and more land is being taken up for cereal crops production to meet food demands. From 1999 to 2019, the area allocated to grow maize, millet and sorghum increased by 0.12%, 0.06%, and 0.05% in Mali, and by 0.08%, 0%, and 0.03% in Burkina Faso respectively. Based on the available literature and using statistical methods, this paper first investigated, on the one hand, how cultivated areas per capita are supposed to evolve in the future under the RCP4.5 climate scenario. On the other hand, what impact this evolution might have on agricultural yields. The results show some average decreases of 3% in Mali and a constant state of harvested area per capita in Burkina Faso, in the area of each selected crop. The attributed areas per capita average about 0.31 ha in Mali and 0.46 ha in Burkina Faso. The average yield per capita is about 442.44 kg in Mali, and 330.40 kg in Burkina Faso. Some 4% decreases in each crop yield are likely to occur in both countries under RCP4.5. Moreover, this thesis studied the future daily intake from each of the three main crops, in both countries. Although producing enough is not the only aspect of food security in a region, it is important to know how this might change over time.