Maamora forest is of high importance both to its
surrounding local population and Morocco as a whole, thanks to the products and
services that it provides. In fact, it was the largest one stand cork oak
forest in the world until beginning of the 20th century. However,
since 1951, this forest has been subject to significant dynamics, characterized
by the replacement of cork oak by pine, eucalyptus and acacia plantations. This
replacement has been for long time motivated by the failure in cork oak
regeneration. Assuming that the consideration of vulnerability would guarantee
more success in the regeneration programs, this study consisted of analyzing
vegetation dynamics prior to studying the vulnerability of forest ecosystems to
global changes. The study confirmed the importance of dynamics in Maamora
forest, and pointed to the fact that vulnerability was more marked in
continental or eastern parts of the forest and that ecosystems are expected to
become more vulnerable in the future. In fact, for 53% of the forest area
presenting a low vulnerability in 2010, only 11% would remain with low
vulnerability at horizon 2045 with climatic scenario RCP 4.5 whereas all the
forest would be moderately to highly vulnerable considering the scenario RCP
8.5 in 2045, or for both scenarios at horizon 2070. These results helped
suggest to forest managers to promptly proceed with the regeneration of cork
oak stands in the westernmost blocs (A, B and C), as well as judiciously
proceed with regeneration in the continental blocs (D and E).
Cite this paper
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