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-  2018 

Vine Copula模型的失效动态相关机械系统可靠性分析
Reliability Analysis of Failure Dynamic Mechanical System using Vine Copula Model

Keywords: 机械系统,Vine Copula函数,非参数估计算法,失效动态相关,可靠度计算
mechanical properties
,function,failure modes,failure analysis,parameter estimation,algorithms,normal distribution,maximum likelihood estimation,time varying systems,dynamic models,mathematical models,reliability analysis,calculations

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Abstract:

提出机械系统的失效动态相关可靠性可采用动态Vine Copula模型进行描述。采用Vine Copula函数将复杂多失效相关的机械系统可靠性问题转换为对多个二维动态Copula函数进行分析。利用非参数估计算法,提出经验分布函数-局部极大似然两步法估计动态Copula函数中的时变参数,从而建立动态Vine Copula 模型来描述多失效动态相关机械系统的可靠性;并重点对机械系统的串联体系可靠性进行建模与分析,进而对机械系统的可靠度进行求解。最后通过单级减速器系统的算例验证了所述方法的合理性及有效性。
The dynamic reliability of mechanical system failure can be described by dynamic Vine Copula model. The Vine Copula function is used to transform the reliability problems of complex and multiple failures related to the analysis of multiple two-dimensional dynamic Copula functions; using the nonparametric estimation algorithm, the empirical distribution function-local maximum likelihood two-step method is proposed to estimate the time-varying parameters in the dynamic Copula function; next, a dynamic Vine Copula model is established to describe the reliability of multi-failure dynamic related mechanical systems. The study focus on the mechanical system of the series system reliability modeling and analysis, then solve out the reliability of the mechanical system. Finally, an example is given to demonstrate the rationality and validity of the method

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