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-  2015 

基于结构方程模型的超速行为分析
Speeding Behavior Analysis Based on Structural Equation Model

Keywords: 交通工程,超速行为,结构方程模型,探索性因子分析,验证性因子分析,限速标志,限速警告信息,traffic engineering,speeding behavior,structural equation model,exploratory factor analysis,confirmatory factor analysis,speed limit signs,speed limit warning messages

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摘要: 为了识别和量化驾驶员在不同交通条件下遵从限速标志或限速警告信息的影响因素,及其相互之间的因果关系,应用探索性因子分析方法与结构方程模型,对534份驾驶员调查问卷进行了数据分析.分析结果表明:结构方程模型和观测数据拟合程度良好(拟合度指标值大于0.9),完全符合判别标准;在低危险感知与高危险感知两种情况下,驾驶员对限速的满意度是影响驾驶员遵从限速规定的主要影响因素;其次是年龄、驾龄、超速受罚次数、驾车频率等驾驶员自身及背景因素.改善驾驶员对于限速规定的整体认可与满意程度,适当提高驾驶员的超速行为风险,是逐步提升驾驶员遵从限速规定行为的有效方法.
Abstract: In order to identify and quantify the causal relationships between drives' compliance with speed limit signs or warning messages and its associated factors in different traffic conditions, the data of 534 driver questionnaire surveys were analyzed by exploratory factor analysis and structural equation model. The analysis results indicate that the structural equation model provides a good fit with the observed values of variables, all the fit indices values are more than 0.9 and can better meet the criterion. The findings reveal that drivers' satisfaction with speed limit is the most significant variable that positively affecting drivers' compliance with speed limit instructions under conditions of low and high hazard perception. Drivers' personal factors, including age, driving experiences, speeding citation numbers, and driving frequency, are the second significant variables. Based on the present study, recommendations of improving the drivers' acceptation and satisfaction with speed limit, increasing drivers' risk of speeding behaviors are suggested, which would be effective measures to enhance drivers' compliance with speed limit instructions

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