基于广义部分线性混合模型的中国A股上市公司现金股利支付倾向影响因素贝叶斯分析

基于2004~2011年12家中国A股上市公司的纵向数据，从成长性、经营状况、股权结构等方面来分析研究中国A股上市公司现金股利支付倾向的影响因素。建立关于规模、成长水平、融资水平、偿债水平、现金流水平、股东获利水平、人均GDP和第一大股东持股比例共8个观测变量的logistic广义部分线性混合效应模型，利用贝叶斯统计方法给出模型参数的估计，并将结果与A股上市公司现金股利支付的实际情况进行了对比分析。结果表明：本文所用模型可以正确解释影响上市公司现金股利支付倾向的因素。
Abstract：Based on the longitudinal data for twelve Chinese A-share listed companies from 2004 to 2011, the factors affecting the cash dividend payment tendency of China's A-share listed companies are analyzed from the aspects of growth, management and stock ownership structure. By establishing a logistic generalized partial linear mixed effect model with eight observation variables, namely scale, growth level, financing level, debt service level, cash flow level, profit level of shareholders, per capita GDP and the proportion of the first large shareholders, the model parameters were estimated by using Bayesian statistical methods, and the results compared with the actual cash dividend payments of the A-share listed companies. The results show that the model used in this paper can correctly explain the factors influencing the cash dividend payment tendency of the listed companies.