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Nonlinear Evolution Characteristics of the NCEP Ensemble Forecast Products

DOI: 10.4236/acs.2018.83022, PP. 337-343

Keywords: NCEP Ensemble Forecast, Nonlinear Characteristics, Evolution

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Abstract:

By using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis products to forecast the nonlinear evolution of the spatial and temporal characteristics, the results shows that on the Spatial dimensions, NCEP ensemble forecast that the products of nonlinear evolution have obvious zonal features. The overall distribution situation is the nonlinear evolution of the southern hemisphere, which is larger than that of the northern hemisphere. In the same hemisphere, low value area is near the equator, and high value area for middle and high latitude area. On the time dimension, the nonlinear evolution of NCEP ensemble prediction products will increase with the extension of the forecast period. In addition, the nonlinear evolution of NCEP ensemble forecast products in North America is greater than the Asian region.

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