All Title Author
Keywords Abstract


Circulation-Type Classification over Mexico by the Era-Interim Database and Cost733

DOI: 10.4236/acs.2018.82019, PP. 286-305

Keywords: Cluster k-Mean, Synoptic Patterns, European Gro?wettertypes

Full-Text   Cite this paper   Add to My Lib

Abstract:

In this paper an approach of a synoptic classification by cluster k-means (CKM) and the European Großwettertypes (GWT) was performed and executed in COST733 package. The methodology used a CKM with nine clusters and GWT with 16. The COST733 evaluated a dataset of 30-years since 1986 to 2015. The variables selected were mean sea level pressure (mslp), geopotential height (z500 and z850), wind speed and direction (u10, v10 and u, v at 850 hPa) and relative vorticity (vo) with a 0.75° × 0.75° resolution of the data grid at 00:00, 06:00, 12:00 and 18:00 UTC and 0 steps. These results were evaluated using COST733 to find the quality of measurements by the explained variance (EV) or reduction ratio in error and pseudo F value (PF) to determine the certainty of the results. GWT-16 showed better yearly values in the evaluation with 32.7 (EV) and 354.3 (PF) against the CKM-9 of 54.2 (EV) and 1621.8 (PF). Finally, it was concluded that GWT-16 could be used for classification of synoptic systems over Mexico and the analysis of meteorological phenomena triggers on increases or decreases of atmospheric pollution in areas over Mexico.

References

[1]  Ramos, A.M., Barriopedro, D. and Dutra, E. (2015) Circulation Weather Types as a Tool in Atmospheric, Climate, and Environmental Research. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 3, 44.
https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2015.00044
[2]  Huth, R., Beck, C., Philipp, A., Demuzere, M., Ustrnul, Z., Cahynová, M., Kysely, J. and Tveito, O.E. (2008) Classifications of Atmospheric Circulation Patterns: Recent Advances and Applications. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1146, 105-152.
https://doi.org/10.1196/annals.1446.019
[3]  Philipp, A., Bartholy, J., Beck, C., Erpicum, M., Esteban, P., Fettweis, X., Huth, R., James, P., Jourdain, S., Kreienkamp, F., Krennert, T., Lykoudis, S., Michalides, S.C., Pianko-Kluczynska, K., Post, P., Alvarez, D.R., Schiemann, R., Spekat, A. and Tymvios, F.S. (2010) Cost733cat—A Database of Weather and Circulation Type Classifications. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 35, 360-373.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2009.12.010
[4]  Kysely, J. and Domonkos, P. (2006) Recent Increase in Persistence of Atmospheric Circulation over Europe: Comparison with Long-Term Variations since 1881. International Journal of Climatology, 26, 461-483.
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1265
[5]  Demuzere, M., Trigo, R.M., Vila-Guerau de Arellano, J. and Van Lipzig, N.P.M. (2009) The Impact of Weather and Atmospheric Circulation on O3 and PM10 Levels at a Rural Mid-Latitude Site. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 9, 2695-2714.
http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/9/2695/2009/
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-2695-2009
[6]  Kasomenos, P. (2010) Synoptic Circulation Control on Wild Fire Occurrence. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 35, 544-552.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2009.11.008
[7]  Lorenzo, M.N., Ramos, A.M., Taboada, J.J. and Gimeno, L. (2011) Changes in Present and Future Circulation Types Frequency in Northwest Iberian Peninsula. PLoS ONE, 6, el6201.
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0016201
[8]  Zheng, M., Chang, E.K., Colle, B.A., Luo, Y. and Zhu, Y. (2017) Applying Fuzzy Clustering to a Multimodel Ensemble for US East Coast Winter Storms: Scenario Identification and Forecast Verification. Weather and Forecasting, 32, 881-903.
https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-16-0112.1
[9]  Pares-Sierra, A., Mascarenhas, A., Marinone, S.G. and Castro, R. (2003) Temporal and Spatial Variation of the Surface Winds in the Gulf of California. Geophysical Research Letters, 20, 1312.
https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL016716
[10]  Douglas, M.W., Maddox, R.A., Howard, K. and Reyes, S. (1993) The Mexican Monsoon. Journal of Climate, 6, 1665-1677.
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1993)006<1665:TMM>2.0.CO;2
[11]  Chadee, X.T. and Clarke, R.M. (2015) Daily Near-Surface Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Patterns over the Wider Caribbean. Climate Dynamics, 44, 2927.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2621-2
[12]  Cortez, M. and Matsumoto (2001) Cambios intraestacionales en la circulación regional sobre México. Investigaciones geográficas, 46, 30-44.
http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=
S0188-46112001000300004&lng=es&tlng=es
[13]  Jáuregui, O.E. (1979) Variaciones de largo periodo de los tipos de tiempo de superficie en México. Boletín del Instituto de Geografía, 4, 9-22.
[14]  Mosiño, A.P. (1958) Una clasificación de las configuraciones de flujo aéreo sobre la República Mexicana. Journal Ingeniería Hidráulica en México, 12, 29-54.
[15]  Bradbury, D. (1958) On the Behaviour Pattern of Cyclones and Anticyclones as Related to Zonal Index. Bulletin American Meteorology Society, 39.
[16]  Dee, D.P., Uppala, S.M., Simmons, A.J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M.A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A.C.M., Van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A.J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S.B., Hersbach, H., Hólm, E.V., Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A.P., Monge-Sanz, B.M., Morcrette, J.-J., Park, B.-K., Peubey, C., De Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J.-N. and Vitart, F. (2011) The ERA-Interim Reanalysis: Configuration and Performance of the Data Assimilation System. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 137, 553-597.
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828
[17]  Philipp, A., Beck, C., Huth, R. and Jacobeit, J. (2014) Development and Comparison of Circulation Type Classifications using the COST 733 Dataset and Software. International Journal of Climatology, 36, 2673-2691.
[18]  Valverde, V., Pay, M.T. and Baldasano, J.M. (2015) Circulation-Type Classification Derived on a Climatic Basis to Study Air Quality Dynamics over the Iberian Peninsula. International Journal of Climatology, 35, 2877-2897.
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4179
[19]  Enke, W. and Spekat, A. (1997) Downscaling Climate Model Outputs into Local and Regional Weather Elements by Classification and Regression. Climate Research, 8, 195-207.
https://doi.org/10.3354/cr008195
[20]  Enke, W., Schneider, F. and Deutschländer, T. (2005) A Novel Scheme to Derive Optimized Circulation Pattern Classifications for Downscaling and Forecast Purposes. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 82, 51-63.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-004-0116-x
[21]  Beck, C., Jacobeit, J. and Jones, P.D. (2007) Frequency and Within-Type Variations of Large-Scale Circulation Types and Their Effects on Low-Frequency Climate Variability in Central Europe since 1780. International Journal of Climatology, 27, 473-491.
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1410
[22]  Calinski, T. and Harabasz, J. (1974) A Dendrite Method for Cluster Analysis. Communications in Statistics, 3, 1-27.
https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1971.10482356
[23]  Rand, W.M. (1971) Objective Criteria for the Evaluation of Clustering Methods. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 66, 846-850.
[24]  Southwood, T.R.E. (1978) Ecological Methods. 2nd Edition, Chapman and Hall, London.
[25]  Hubert, L. and Arabie, P. (1985) Comparing Partitions. Journal of Classification, 2, 193-218.
https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01908075
[26]  Milligan, G. and Cooper, M. (1985) An Examination of Procedures for Determining the Number of Clusters in a Data Set. Psychometrika, 50, 159-179.
https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02294245
[27]  Kalkstein, L.S., Tan, G. and Skindlov, J.A. (1987) An Evaluation of Three Clustering Procedures for Use in Synoptic Climatological Classification. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 26, 717-730.
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1987)026<0717:AEOTCP>2.0.CO;2
[28]  Strehl, A. and Gosh, J. (2002) Cluster Ensembles—A Knowledge Reuse Framework for Combining Partitions. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 3, 583-617.
[29]  Kuncheva, L. and Hadjitodorov, S.T. (2004) Using Diversity in Cluster Ensembles. IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, The Hague, 10-13 October 2004, Vol. 2, 1214-1219.
https://doi.org/10.1109/ICSMC.2004.1399790

Full-Text

comments powered by Disqus