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甘肃临夏地区过去195年最高温度历史重建——基于紫果云杉树轮宽度资料

DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-7410.2014.06.16, PP. 1270-1279

Keywords: 临夏,紫果云杉,树轮宽度,温度重建

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Abstract:

通过对甘肃临夏松鸣岩地区紫果云杉树轮宽度的分析,发现研究区树轮标准宽度年表与降水、PDSI相关低,而与当地3~10月平均最高温(3月至10月月平均最高温的算术平均值)相关最高(r=0.578,p<0.0001,n=62)。在此基础上,利用多元回归技术设计转换方程,重建了研究区1818年以来3~10月平均最高温,重建序列的方差解释量达40%(调整自由度后为38%)。重建序列中高温年与低温年的年份大致相当,分别为14.9%和12.9%;重建时段可以分为4个温暖期(1818~1854年、1882~1900年、1937~1966年和2001~2012年)和3个寒冷期(1855~1881年、1901~1936年和1967~2000年),可与秦岭西部的温度重建结果进行良好的对比;研究区在20世纪后期(2001~2012年平均最高温比1970~1980年平均最高温)有明显的升温趋势,上升0.77℃。空间分析表明,临夏地区3~10月平均最高气温变化具有一定的空间代表性,可以反映黄土高原西部地区气温的历史变化。功率谱分析(MTM)检测出该重建序列在过去195年中存在42.74a,7.79~3.18a和2.77a的准周期震荡,可能与PDO和ENSO大尺度海洋耦合作用有关。

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