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Mathematics  2011 

A note on fractional linear pure birth and pure death processes in epidemic models

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2011.06.005

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Abstract:

In this note we highlight the role of fractional linear birth and linear death processes recently studied in \citet{sakhno} and \citet{pol}, in relation to epidemic models with empirical power law distribution of the events. Taking inspiration from a formal analogy between the equation of self consistency of the epidemic type aftershock sequences (ETAS) model, and the fractional differential equation describing the mean value of fractional linear growth processes, we show some interesting applications of fractional modelling to study \textit{ab initio} epidemic processes without the assumption of any empirical distribution. We also show that, in the frame of fractional modelling, subcritical regimes can be linked to linear fractional death processes and supercritical regimes to linear fractional birth processes. Moreover we discuss a simple toy model to underline the possible application of these stochastic growth models to more general epidemic phenomena such as tumoral growth.

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