部分线性矩在陕北地区洪水频率分析中的应用
Using Partial L-Moments for Flood Frequency Analysis in the Northern Shaanxi

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Keywords: 洪水频率分析，广义极值分布，参数估计，部分线性矩
Flood Frequency Analysis, Generalized Extreme Value Distribution, Parameter Estimation, Partial L-Moments

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Abstract:

陕北地区洪水灾害严重且频繁，为了该区水利防洪工程设计建设提供可靠的理论依据，研究部分线性矩在该区洪水频率分析中的应用。本文在介绍部分线性矩原理的基础上，选取陕北交口河、赵石窖、绥德、刘家河、张村驿、志丹及神木7个水文站的洪峰流量资料，将部分线性矩应用于陕北地区洪水序列参数估计中，计算设计洪水值，并拟合洪水频率曲线，利用累积相对偏差平方和评价所得洪水频率曲线对洪峰序列拟合效果，并与普通线性矩法拟合结果进行比较分析。利用部分线性矩和普通线性矩对陕北7个水文站洪水频率进行的分析表明：除了张村译站外，随着删失值F0的增大，设计值的相对偏差值越小，说明部分线性矩法对高尾部经验点据拟合效果更好，提高了设计值估算精度。因此，是一种合理有效的洪水频率分析参数估计方法，可用于陕北地区的洪水频率计算。
The northern Shaanxi province suffers serious and frequent flood disasters. In order to provide an efficient and reliable theoretical basis for design of the flood control project in this area, the Partial L-Moments was used for flood frequency analysis based on introducing the principles of Partial L-Moments. The annual maximum flood series of seven hydrologic stations (Jiaokou, Zhaoshiyao, Sudie, Liujia, Zhangjiashan, Zhidan and Shenmu) were used to estimate the parameters of Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution by proposed method. The design floods were calculated and the flood frequency curve was fitted. Then the cumulative of squares error was regarded as an indicator to evaluate the effect and compared with the traditional method of moments. The results show that with censored level F0 value increases, the relative deviation of the design value is smaller. Partial L-Moments can describe the data better in flood analysis and improve the estimation precision of design floods. Partial L-Moments is a reasonable and effective method and can be used for flood frequency analysis in the northern Shaanxi province.

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