赣江流域未来降雨径流变化模拟预测
Simulation and Prediction of Future Precipitation and Runoff Change in the Ganjiang Basin

DOI: 10.12677/JWRR.2014.36064, PP. 522-531

Keywords: 气候变化，径流预测，IPCC5，月水量平衡模型，赣江流域
Climate Change, Runoff Prediction, IPCC5, Monthly Water Balance Model, Ganjiang Basin

Full-Text   Cite this paper   Add to My Lib

Abstract:

本文采用BCC-CSM1.1全球气候模式，在IPCC5推荐的三种代表性浓度路径RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下，应用SDSM统计降尺度技术将GCM输出进行降解，并作为分布式两参数月水量平衡模型的输入，模拟预测赣江流域未来的降雨径流变化。结果表明：在三种浓度路径下，2020s和2050s时期年径流量均比近期减少，2080s时期则存在差异：RCP2.6和RCP4.5浓度两种路径下的年径流量与近期基本持平，而RCP8.5浓度路径下相对近期有明显的增加。同时，未来主汛期径流减少，非汛期径流呈现不同程度的增加，气候变化在一定程度上有可能减轻赣江流域未来汛期的防洪压力和枯水期的供水压力。
The SDSM statistical downscaling technique was adopted to degrade the output of BCC-CSM1.1 model under three representative concentration pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios recommended by IPCC5. Future precipitation and temperature series were as inputs of distributed two-parameter monthly water balance model to simulate and predict future runoff change in the Ganjiang basin. The results show that under three representative concentration pathways, simulated annual runoff volumes of 2020s and 2050s are both less than the reference value in the recent period, but there are differences for 2080s period: under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 concentration pathways, the simulated annual runoff volumes are almost equal to the recent reference value, while more than the recent reference value under RCP8.5 concentration pathways. Meanwhile, future runoff volume decreases in the main flood season and increases in dry season, which implies that climate change is likely to alleviate flood control pressure during flood season and water supply pressure during dry season to some extent in the Ganjiang basin.

References

[1]	叶许春, 刘健, 李相虎, 等. 气候和人类活动对赣江径流变化的作用分析[J]. 河海大学学报(自然科学版), 2013, 41(3): 196-203. YE Xuchun, LIU Jian, LI Xianghu, et al. Effects of climate variability and human activities on runoff variation of Gan-jiang River Basin. Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences), 2013, 41(3): 196-203. (in Chinese)
[2]	ARNELL, N.W. A simple water balance model for the simulation of streamflow over a large geographic domain. Journal f Hy-drology, 1999, 217(3-4): 314-355.
[3]	袁飞, 谢正辉, 任立良, 等. 气候变化对海河流域水文特性的影响[J]. 水利学报, 2005, 36(3): 274-279. YUAN Fei, XIE Zhenghui, REN Liliang, et al. Hydrological variation in Haihe River Basin due to climate change. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2005, 36(3): 274-279. (in Chinese)
[4]	郭靖, 郭生练, 张俊, 等. 汉江流域未来降水径流预测分析研究[J]. 水文, 2009, 29(5): 18-22. GUO Jing, GUO Shenglian, ZHANG Jun, et al. Prediction of rainfall and runoff changes in the Hanjiang Basin. Journal of China Hydrology, 2009, 29(5): 18-22. (in Chinese)
[5]	肖恒, 陆桂华, 吴志勇, 等. 珠江流域未来30年洪水对气候变化的响应[J]. 水利学报, 2013, 44(12): 1409-1419. XIAO Heng, LU Guihua, WU Zhiyong, et al. Flood response to climate change in the Pearl River basin for the next three decades. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2013, 44(12): 1409-1419. (in Chinese)
[6]	ARNELL, N.W. Effects of IPCC SRES emissions scenarios on river runoff: A global perspective. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 1999, 7(5): 619-641.
[7]	CHEN, H., GUO, S.L., XU, C.Y., et al. Historical temporal trends of hydro-climatic variables and runoff response to climate variability and their relevance in water resource management in the Hanjiang basin. Journal of Hydrology, 2007, 344(3): 171-184.
[8]	秦大河. 气候变化科学与人类可持续发展[J]. 地理科学与发展, 2014, 33(7): 874-883. QIN Dahe. Climate change science and sustainable development. Progress in Geography, 2014, 33(7): 874-883. (in Chinese)
[9]	杜尧东, 杨红龙, 刘蔚琴. 未来RCPs情景下珠江流域降水特征的模拟分析[J]. 热带气象学报, 2014, 30(3): 495-502. DU Yaodong, YANG Honglong, LIU Weiqin. Future change of precipitation extremes over the Pearl River Basin from regional climate models. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 2014, 30(3): 495-502. (in Chinese)
[10]	王国庆, 张建云, 李岩, 等. 海河流域基于多模式的未来气候变化趋势[J]. 资源科学, 2014, 36(5): 1043-1050. WANG Guoqing, ZHANG Jianyun, LI Yan, et al. Variation trend of future climate for the Hai River Basin based on multiple GCMs projections. Resources Science, 2014, 36(5): 1043-1050. (in Chinese)
[11]	杨井, 郭生练, 王金星, 等. 基于GIS的分布式月水量平衡模型及其应用[J]. 武汉大学学报(工学版), 2002, 35(4): 22-26. YANG Jing, GUO Shenglian, WANG Jinxing, et al. GIS based distributed monthly water balance model and its appli-cation. Engineering Journal of Wuhan University, 2002, 35(4): 22-26. (in Chinese)
[12]	熊立华, 郭生练, 付小平, 等. 两参数月水量平衡模型的研制和应用[J]. 水科学进展, 1996, 7: 80-86. XIONG Lihua, GUO Shenglian, FU Xiaoping, et al. Two-parameter monthly water balance model and its application. Advances in Water Science, 1996, 7: 80-86. (in Chinese)
[13]	XIONG, L.H. and GUO, S.L. A two-parameter monthly water balance model and its application. Journal of Hydrology, 1999, 216(1-2): 111-123.
[14]	陈华, 郭家力, 郭生练, 等. 统计降尺度方法及其评价指标比较研究[J]. 水利学报, 2012, 43(8): 891-897. CHEN Hua, GUO Jiali, GUO Shenglian, et al. Comparison of different statistical downscaling methods and evaluation indicators in climate change impact on runoff. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2012, 43(8): 891-897. (in Chi-nese)
[15]	WILBY, R.L., DAWSON, C.W. and BARROW, E.M. SDSM—A decision support tool for the assessment of regional climate change impacts. Environmental and Modeling Software, 2002, 17(2): 147-159.
[16]	CHU, J.T., XIA, J. and XU, C.Y. Statistical downscaling the daily precipitation for climate change scenarios in Haihe River Basin of China. Journal of Natural Resources, 2008, 23(6): 1068-1076.
[17]	郭靖. 气候变化对流域水循环和水资源影响的研究[D]. 武汉: 武汉大学, 2010. GUO Jing. Climate change impact on hydrological cycle and water resources. Wuhan: Wuhan University, 2010. (in Chinese)

Full-Text