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Simulation and Prediction of Future Precipitation and Runoff Change in the Ganjiang Basin

DOI: 10.12677/JWRR.2014.36064, PP. 522-531

Keywords: 气候变化,径流预测,IPCC5,月水量平衡模型,赣江流域
Climate Change
, Runoff Prediction, IPCC5, Monthly Water Balance Model, Ganjiang Basin

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The SDSM statistical downscaling technique was adopted to degrade the output of BCC-CSM1.1 model under three representative concentration pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios recommended by IPCC5. Future precipitation and temperature series were as inputs of distributed two-parameter monthly water balance model to simulate and predict future runoff change in the Ganjiang basin. The results show that under three representative concentration pathways, simulated annual runoff volumes of 2020s and 2050s are both less than the reference value in the recent period, but there are differences for 2080s period: under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 concentration pathways, the simulated annual runoff volumes are almost equal to the recent reference value, while more than the recent reference value under RCP8.5 concentration pathways. Meanwhile, future runoff volume decreases in the main flood season and increases in dry season, which implies that climate change is likely to alleviate flood control pressure during flood season and water supply pressure during dry season to some extent in the Ganjiang basin.


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