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Research on Land Surface Thermal-Hydrologic Exchange in Southern China under Future Climate and Land Cover Scenarios

DOI: 10.1155/2013/969145

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Abstract:

Climate change inevitably leads to changes in hydrothermal circulation. However, thermal-hydrologic exchanging caused by land cover change has also undergone ineligible changes. Therefore, studying the comprehensive effects of climate and land cover changes on land surface water and heat exchanges enables us to well understand the formation mechanism of regional climate and predict climate change with fewer uncertainties. This study investigated the land surface thermal-hydrologic exchange across southern China for the next 40 years using a land surface model (ecosystem-atmosphere simulation scheme (EASS)). Our findings are summarized as follows. (i) Spatiotemporal variation patterns of sensible heat flux (H) and evapotranspiration (ET) under the land cover scenarios (A2a or B2a) and climate change scenario (A1B) are unanimous. (ii) Both H and ET take on a single peak pattern, and the peak occurs in June or July. (iii) Based on the regional interannual variability analysis, H displays a downward trend (10%) and ET presents an increasing trend (15%). (iv) The annual average H and ET would, respectively, increase and decrease by about 10% when woodland converts to the cultivated land. Through this study, we recognize that land surface water and heat exchanges are affected greatly by the future climate change as well as land cover change. 1. Introduction Global climate change characterized by global warming has put significant impacts on natural ecosystems and human society [1, 2]. According to estimates, global climate will very likely continue to become warm in the next 100 years [3]. Many observed natural and biological systems’ abnormal changes, such as species extinction, sea level rising, and frequent extreme weather events, as well as changes in plant and animal biological characteristics, have been linked to climate warming [4, 5]. Therefore, a reasonable estimate of future climate change has become an important issue for scientists, public, and policy makers and a hot topic for improving the understanding of the climate system and the accuracy of future climate change projections. Climate warming intensifies hydrothermal circulation as well and causes temporal-spatial variations of water and heat resources. It will further increase the frequency of hydrological extreme events and change the regional water and heat balances. In turn, water circulation and heat transport are important processes of each circle in the entire climate system. They directly affect the local climate, environments, and ecosystems and therefore play very important roles in

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