In the context of sustainable transportation systems, previous studies have either focused only on the transportation system or have not used a methodology that enables the treatment of incomplete, vague, and qualitative information associated with the available data. This study proposes a system of systems (SOS) and a fuzzy logic modeling approach. The SOS includes the Transportation, Activity, and Environment systems. The fuzzy logic modeling approach enables the treatment of the vagueness associated with some of the relevant data. Performance Indices (PIs) are computed for each system using a number of performance measures. The PIs illustrate the aggregated performance of each system as well as the interactions among them. The proposed methodology also enables the estimation of a Composite Sustainability Index to summarize the aggregated performance of the overall SOS. Existing data was used to analyze sustainability in the entire United States. The results showed that the Transportation and Activity systems follow a positive trend, with similar periods of growth and contractions; in contrast, the environmental system follows a reverse pattern. The results are intuitive and are associated with a series of historic events, such as depressions in the economy as well as policy changes and regulations. 1. Introduction 1.1. Background With the rapid increase in economic development throughout the world, there is stress on the resources used to support global economy, including petroleum, coal, silver, and water. Currently, the world is consuming energy at an unprecedented rate never seen before. Based on data from 2005, about 30.6 billion barrels of petroleum are used annually worldwide [1]. The estimates indicate that the availability of total world reserves is in the vicinity of 1.3 trillion barrels and will be depleted by 2047 [2]. The finite nature of such nonrenewable natural resources as petroleum and coal puts pressure on the environmental system and ultimately reduces the availability of resources for future generations. Hence, it is critical to develop planning and operational strategies that seek to achieve a sustainable use of existing natural resources. The development of a sustainable system and its corresponding planning strategies requires an adequate definition of sustainability as well as mechanisms to quantify, qualify, and assess sustainability. The quantification of sustainability poses considerable challenges, ranging from data availability to adequate methods to process information. Numerous studies have established different
References
[1]
EIA (Energy Information Administration), International Energy Outlook, EIA, Washington, DC, USA, 2006.
[2]
J. J. MacKenzie, “Alternative fuels to reduce petroleum consumption, global warming gases, and urban air pollution,” in Symposium on Challenges and Opportunities for Global Transportation in the 21st Century, John A. Volpe Transportation Systems Center, Cambridge, Mass, USA, 1995.
[3]
J. Zheng, C. Atkinson-Palombo, C. McCahill, R. O’Hara, and N. W. Garrick, “Quantifying the economic domain of transportation sustainability,” in Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board—CDROM, Washington, DC, USA, 2011.
[4]
S. Bell and S. Morse, Sustainability Indicators: Measuring the Immeasurable, Earthscan, London, UK, 2nd edition, 2008.
[5]
J. R. E. Harger and F. M. Meyer, “Definition of indicators for environmentally sustainable development,” Chemosphere, vol. 33, no. 9, pp. 1749–1775, 1996.
[6]
H. Bossel, “Assessing viability and sustainability: a systems-based approach for deriving comprehensive indicator sets,” Conservation Ecology, vol. 5, no. 2, article 12, 2001.
[7]
C. M. Jeon, A. A. Amekudzi, and R. L. Guensler, “Evaluating plan alternatives for transportation system sustainability: Atlanta metropolitan region,” International Journal of Sustainable Transportation, vol. 4, no. 4, pp. 227–247, 2010.
[8]
T. Litman, “Developing indicators for comprehensive and sustainable transport planning,” Transportation Research Record, no. 2017, pp. 10–15, 2007.
[9]
J. A. Paravantis and D. A. Georgakellos, “Trends in energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions of passenger cars and buses,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 74, no. 5, pp. 682–707, 2007.
[10]
S. Huzayyin and H. Salem, “Analysis of thirty years evolution of urban growth, transport demand and supply, energy consumption, greenhouse and pollutants emissions in Greater Cairo,” Research in Transportation Economics, vol. 40, no. 1, pp. 104–115, 2013.
[11]
T. Litman, Climate Change Emission Valuation for Transportation Economic Analysis, Victoria Transport Policy Institute, 2012.
[12]
E. J. Zolnik, “Estimates of statewide and nationwide carbon dioxide emission reductions and their costs from cash for clunkers,” Journal of Transport Geography, vol. 24, pp. 271–281, 2012.
[13]
G. R. Conway, “Sustainability in agricultural development: trade-offs with productivity, stability and equitability,” Journal of Farming Systems Research and Extension, vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 1–14, 1994.
[14]
R. Gray, “Economic measures of sustainability,” Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, vol. 39, no. 4, pp. 627–635, 1991.
[15]
WCED (World Commission on Environment and Development), Our Common Future, Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK, 1987.
[16]
R. Costanza, B. Norton, and B. D. Haskell, Ecosystem Health: New Goals for Environmental Management, Island Press, Washington, DC, USA, 1992.
[17]
IUCN (World Conservation Union), UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme), and WWF (World Wide Fund for Nature), Caring for the Earth: A Strategy for Sustainable Living, IUCN, Gland, Switzerland, 1991.
[18]
K. Rennings and H. Wiggering, “Steps towards indicators of sustainable development: linking economic and ecological concepts,” Ecological Economics, vol. 20, no. 1, pp. 25–36, 1997.
[19]
G. Munda, Fuzzy Information on Multi-Criteria Environmental Models, Physika, Heidelberg, Germany, 1995.
[20]
J. Zietsman, L. R. Rilett, and S. J. Kim, “Transportation corridor decision-making with multi-attribute utility theory,” International Journal of Management and Decision Making, vol. 7, no. 2-3, pp. 254–266, 2006.
[21]
R. Islam and T. L. Saaty, “The analytic hierarchy process in the transportation sector,” in Multiple Criteria Decision Making for Sustainable Energy and Transportation Systems, vol. 634 of Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Springer, Physica, Berlin, Heidelberg, 2010.
[22]
G. A. Mendoza and R. Prabhu, “Multiple criteria decision making approaches to assessing forest sustainability using criteria and indicators: a case study,” Forest Ecology and Management, vol. 131, no. 1-3, pp. 107–126, 2000.
[23]
H. J. Zimmermann, Fuzzy Set Theory and Its Applications, Kluwer Academic, Boston, Mass, USA, 4th edition, 2001.
[24]
S. Yedla and R. M. Shrestha, “Multi-criteria approach for the selection of alternative options for environmentally sustainable transport system in Delhi,” Transportation Research A, vol. 37, no. 8, pp. 717–729, 2003.
[25]
D. Tsamboulas and G. Mikroudis, “EFECT—evaluation framework of environmental impacts and costs of transport initiatives,” Transportation Research D, vol. 5, no. 4, pp. 283–303, 2000.
[26]
A. Awasthi and H. Omrani, “A hybrid approach based on AHP and belief theory for evaluating sustainable transportation solutions,” International Journal of Global Environmental Issues, vol. 9, no. 3, pp. 212–226, 2009.
[27]
T. L. Saaty, The Analytic Hierarchy Process, McGraw-Hill, New York, NY, USA, 1980.
[28]
G. Crawford and C. Williams, “A note on the analysis of subjective judgment matrices,” Journal of Mathematical Psychology, vol. 29, no. 4, pp. 387–405, 1985.
[29]
J. Barzilai, “Consistency measures for pairwise comparison matrices,” Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, vol. 7, no. 3, pp. 123–132, 1998.
[30]
G. J. Klir and B. Yuan, Fuzzy Sets and Logic: Theory and Application, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ, USA, 1995.
[31]
R. R. Yager, “Aggregation operators and fuzzy systems modeling,” Fuzzy Sets and Systems, vol. 67, no. 2, pp. 129–145, 1994.
[32]
W. Silvert, “Ecological impact classification with fuzzy sets,” Ecological Modelling, vol. 96, no. 1–3, pp. 1–10, 1997.
[33]
A. Awasthi, S. S. Chauhan, and H. Omrani, “Application of fuzzy TOPSIS in evaluating sustainable transportation systems,” Expert Systems with Applications, vol. 38, no. 10, pp. 12270–12280, 2011.
[34]
S. Opricovic and G. H. Tzeng, “Fuzzy multicriteria model for postearthquake land-use planning,” Natural Hazards Review, vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 59–64, 2003.
[35]
G. A. Mendoza and R. Prabhu, “Fuzzy methods for assessing criteria and indicators of sustainable forest management,” Ecological Indicators, vol. 3, no. 4, pp. 227–236, 2004.
[36]
K. F. R. Liu, “Evaluating environmental sustainability: an integration of multiple-criteria decision-making and fuzzy logic,” Environmental Management, vol. 39, no. 5, pp. 721–736, 2007.
[37]
T. Prato, “A fuzzy logic approach for evaluating ecosystem sustainability,” Ecological Modelling, vol. 187, no. 2-3, pp. 361–368, 2005.
[38]
L. A. Marks, E. G. Dunn, J. M. Keller, and L. D. Godsey, “Multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) using fuzzy logic: an innovative approach to sustainable agriculture,” in Proceedings of the 3rd International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis and Annual Conference of the North American Fuzzy Information Processing Society (ISUMA-NAFIPS'95), pp. 503–508, IEEE Computer Society, Washington, DC, USA, September 1995.
[39]
R. L. Ackoff, “Towards a system of systems concepts,” Management Science, vol. 17, no. 11, pp. 661–671, 1971.
[40]
T. Lomax, S. Turner, and G. Shunk, Quantifying Congestion, vol. 1, National Cooperative Highway Research Program, Transportation Research Board, National Academy Press, Washington, DC, USA, 1997.
[41]
D. L. Schrank and T. J. Thomas, Urban Mobility Report, Texas Transportation Institute, College Station, Tex, USA, 2009.
[42]
W. R. Black, “Sustainable transport and potential mobility,” European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research, vol. 2, no. 3-4, pp. 179–196, 2002.
[43]
BTS (Bureau of Transportation Statistics), “Key Transportation Indicators,” 2011, http://www.bts.gov/publications/key_transportation_indicators.
[44]
M. L. Manheim, Fundamentals of Transportation Systems Analysis, Volume 1: Basic Concepts, MIT Press, Boston, Mass, USA, 1979.
[45]
E. Cascetta, Transportation Systems Analysis: Models and Applications, Springer, New York, NY, USA, 2009.
[46]
UNDP (United Nations Development Programme), “Human Development Report,” 2010, http://www.hdr.undp.org/en/statistics/.
[47]
ARTBA (American Road and Transportation Builders Association), 2011, http://www.artba.org/mediafiles/regulatorylegalartbacafecommentsjanuary2011.pdf.
[48]
ESI (Environmental Sustainability Index), Benchmarking National Environmental Stewardship, Yale Center for Environmental Law and Policy, Yale University, 2005, http://www.yale.edu/esi/ESI2005_Main_Report.pdf.
[49]
R. R. Yager, S. Ovchinnikov, R. M. Tong, and H. T. Nguyen, Fuzzy Sets and Applications: Selected Papers By L.A. Zadeh, John Wiley & Sons, New York, NY, USA, 1987.
[50]
L. H. Tsoukalas and R. E. Uhrig, Fuzzy and Neural Approaches in Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, New York, NY, USA, 1997.
[51]
W. Pedrycz, “Why triangular membership functions?” Fuzzy Sets and Systems, vol. 64, no. 1, pp. 21–30, 1994.
[52]
C. H. Yeh and H. Deng, “A practical approach to fuzzy utilities comparison in fuzzy multicriteria analysis,” International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, vol. 35, no. 2, pp. 179–194, 2004.
[53]
EIA (Energy Information Administration), Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States, Washington, DC, USA, 2009, http://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/ghg_report/pdf/tbl6.pdf.
[54]
EPA (Environmental Protection Agency), Clearinghouse for Inventories and Emissions Factors (CHIEF), Current Emission Trends Summaries, 2009, http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/trends/index.html.
[55]
World Databank, World Development Indicators and Global Development Finance, 2010, http://www.databank.worldbank.org/ddp/home.do?Step=2&id=4&hActiveDimensionId=WDI_Series.
[56]
EIA (Environmental Information Administration), Monthly Energy Review, 2011, http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/mer/contents.html.
[57]
M. Mussa, “U.S. Macroeconomic policy and third world debt,” Cato Journal, vol. 4, no. 1, 1984, http://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/serials/files/cato-journal/1984/5/cj4n1-5.pdf.
[58]
R. H. Kamery, “A brief review of the recession of 1990-1991,” Allied Academies International Conference, Proceedings of the Academy of Legal, Ethical and Regulatory Issues, vol. 8, no. 2, 2004.
[59]
B. Genier, “Peak Demand—U.S. Gasoline Demand Likely Peaked in 2007,” Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA), 2008, http://www2.cera.com/news/details/1,2318,9568,00.html.
[60]
P. Young, K. Notis, G. Feuerberg, and L. Nguyen, “BTS Technical Report: transportation services index and the economy,” 2007.
[61]
K. Lahiri and W. Yao, “A dynamic factor model of the coincident indicators for the US transportation sector,” Applied Economics Letters, vol. 11, no. 10, pp. 595–600, 2004.
[62]
T. Litman and R. Steele, Land Use Impacts on Transport: How Land Use Factors Affect Travel Behavior, Victoria Transport Policy Institute, 2011.
[63]
Nelson/Nygaard, Crediting Low-Traffic Developments: Adjusting Site-Level Vehicle Trip Generation Using URBEMIS, Urban Emissions Model, California Air Districts, 2005.
[64]
D. S. Kim, D. Porter, and R. Wurl, Technology Evaluation for Implementation of VMT Based Revenue Collection Systems, Oregon Department of Transportation, Road User Fee Task Force, Salem, Ore, USA, 2002.
[65]
K. Jordal, M. Anheden, J. Yan, and L. Str?mberg, “Oxy-fuel Combustion for coal-fired power generation with CO2 capture—opportunities and challenges,” in Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies (GHGT-7), Vancouver, Canada, 2004.
[66]
M. B. Toftegaard, J. Brix, P. A. Jensen, P. Glarborg, and A. D. Jensen, “Oxy-fuel combustion of solid fuels,” Progress in Energy and Combustion Science, vol. 36, no. 5, pp. 581–625, 2010.
[67]
M. P. Hekkert, F. H. J. F. Hendriks, A. P. C. Faaij, and M. L. Neelis, “Natural gas as an alternative to crude oil in automotive fuel chains well-to-wheel analysis and transition strategy development,” Energy Policy, vol. 33, no. 5, pp. 579–594, 2005.
[68]
P. Goyal and Sidhartha, “Present scenario of air quality in Delhi: a case study of CNG implementation,” Atmospheric Environment, vol. 37, no. 38, pp. 5423–5431, 2003.
[69]
S. Yeh, “An empirical analysis on the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles: the case of natural gas vehicles,” Energy Policy, vol. 35, no. 11, pp. 5865–5875, 2007.
[70]
M. Q. Wang and H. S. Huang, “A full fuel-cycle analysis of energy and emissions impacts of transportation fuels produced from natural gas,” Report No. ANL/ESD-40, Center for Transportation Research, Energy Systems Division, Argonne National Laboratory, IL, US Department of Energy, 2000.
[71]
M. S. Dresselhaus and I. L. Thomas, “Alternative energy technologies,” Nature, vol. 414, no. 6861, pp. 332–337, 2001.
[72]
S. G. Wirasingha, N. Schofield, and A. Emadi, “Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle developments in the US: trends, barriers, and economic feasibility,” in Proceedings of the IEEE Vehicle Power and Propulsion Conference (VPPC'08), Harbin, China, September 2008.