This paper decomposes manufacturing import
growth rates in a selected set of large industrial and developing countries
(five industrial and eight developing) and measures the relative contributions
of domestic demand and market share changes for two separate periods
1991/92-2001/02 and 2001/02-2007/08. It also shows the shares of imports both
from the rest of the world and from developing countries for aggregate and
three digit manufacturing sectors. Import growth is much higher during the
2000s driven by higher demand growth rates. While market share changes explain
most of the growth during the 1990s, its contribution is relatively smaller
during the 2000s. Imports from developing countries have grown much faster both
in industrial and developing country markets driven primarily by market share
changes. However, more than half of market share gains by developing countries
are caused by the exports of China which accounts for more than 70 percent of
market share gains of developing countries in our sample countries during the
2000s. Despite rapid growth, developing country’s share in the gross absorption
of the sample countries is still very low and can expand substantially even if
demand growth is much lower in the near future.
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G. Hanson and R. Raymond, “China and the Recent Evolution of Latin America’s Manufacturing Exports,” In: D. Laderman, M. Olarreaga and E. Perry, Eds., Chapter 5 in China’s and India’s Challenge to Latin America: Opportunity or Threat? World Bank, Washington DC, 2009.
R. Koopman, Z. Wang and S.-J. Wei, “How Much of Chinese Exports Is Really Made in China? Assessing Domestic Value-Added When Processing Trade Is Pervasive,” The National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper, No. 14109, NBER, Cambridge, 2008.
X. Chen, L. Cheng, K. C. Fung and L. Lau, et al., “Domestic Value-Added and Employment Generated by Chinese Exports: A Quantitative Estimation,” Munich Personal RePEc Archive (MPRA) Paper, No. 15663, 2008.
R. M. Stern, “Comparative Advantage, Growth, and the Gains from Trade and Globalization (World Scientific Studies in International Economics),” 1st Edition, World Scientific Publishing Company, Singapore City, 2011.