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Circunstancia  2009 

Hezbollah: Between the I.D.F.'s Withdrawal and the Establishment of a Lebanese Unity Government --Another Step on the Way to an Islamic Republic in Lebanon

Keywords: Hezbollah , Middle-east , Lebanon , terror , Nasrallah.

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In July 2008, Fuad Seniora established the National Unity Government in Lebanon which was comprised of 30 ministers. With eleven of these ministers belonging to the opposition headed by Hezbollah, Nasrallah earned the right to veto government decisions. This development, brought Nasrallah one step closer to his organization's goal of establishing an Islamic Republic in Lebanon .An analysis of the processes in the Lebanese arena and of the power structure between various players, since the 2000 withdrawal until the unity government, demonstrates that Hezbollah's standing in Lebanon has improved despite the Second Lebanon War. In addition, Nasrallah has systematically advanced along the path of turning Lebanon into an Islamic Republic, characterized by two parallel efforts: (1) from inside the political system, in order to gain positions of power and influence; and (2) from outside the system, by establishing a military power.The Lebanese government has no choice but to acquiesce to the movement's demands, support the resistance and its goals, and avoid carrying out U.N. Resolution 1701, which requires the country to dismantle the movement's arms capabilities. The balance of power falls significantly in favor of the movement, as it stands strong relative to a weak government and a divided society of many ethnic groups, unwilling to pay the price of a confrontation with Hezbollah.So long as there are no significant changes in the balance of power within Lebanon , Hezbollah will continue to retain control over the Lebanese system.


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