Evaluation of the Agricultural Planejamentos for the Subsystem Catolé II and Po o Redondo in the Semi-árido Nordestino

To guarantee the reservoirs water use efficiency, because of hydrological uncertainties, has become a great concern for the water resources planning and management in recent years, due to increasing water demands for several uses and environmental degradation, which diminishes the water availability. The objective of this work is to analyze and to compare the performance 2 scenes of agricultural planning for the system of reservoirs Catolé II and Po o Redondo, in the Piancó’s river basin, located in the semiarid region of Paraíba state, through the combination of the optimization and simulation models, both based on sequential linear programming. Each model gets, respectively, from the dry scenario, the performance indicators (reliability, resilience and vulnerability) and the settings for an Optimal Agricultural Planning (POA) of the system, which is compared with the Agricultural Planning proposed by the State Water Resources Policies for the Piancó’s basin river (PAPD). The results showed that PAPD estimated irrigation water demand is not sustainable to attend during years of drought, failing up to 3 consecutive months, in which the attendance was 20% of the required demand. There were no failing events for the fulfillment of POA estimated irrigated water demand due the reduction of 11,5 % of the plantation area.