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Forecasting of Niger Grain Production and Harvested Area

Keywords: Area harvested , ARIMA , forecasting , grain , millet , Niger , sorghum , production

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Abstract:

Niger agriculture is predominantly rain-fed and remains the main source of income for large population. Despite its importance in Niger economy, agriculture sector is still traditional and largely affected by severe weather conditions. High population growth which experienced Niger continues to increase pressure on limited land resulting in extension of crop production on marginal land unfavorable for agriculture. The fact that Niger agriculture is rain-fed is behind the country vulnerability to food insecurity. The main purpose of this study is to forecast Niger grain production and harvested Areas and for the two main staple crops (Millet and Sorghum) using ARIMA model. The time series data of production and harvested area covering the period 1970-2010 were used in the study. The findings showed that the total harvested Area and total grain production would be 21317.4 thousand of ha and 12677.9 thousand tons in 2030, respectively. The model also showed that Millet and Sorghum production would be 4503 thousand tons and 1574.8 tons, respectively at the same period. The results of study are expected to help Niger authorities to build strong strategy in reducing population’s vulnerability to food insecurity and make policies with regard to relative price structure, production and consumption.

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