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大气科学  2013 

Improvements to dynamical analogue climate prediction method in China
近年来我国短期气候预测中动力相似预测方法研究与应用进展

Keywords: Short-range climate prediction,Dynamical analogue,Forecasting error
短期气候预测
,动力相似,预报误差

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Abstract:

Because the dynamical climate prediction model is ineffective for skillful forecasting on a weekly to intra-annual scale in the East Asia region, the combination of a dynamical and statistical prediction method has been suggested as an optimal strategy. To realize the technique, a forecasting error correction method by utilizing historical analogue information was developed in China. The current applications show that this new method can significantly improve prediction skill in extended range, monthly, seasonal, and El Ni o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction and hence have encouraged us to further explore operational applications for this method in the future.

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