All Title Author
Keywords Abstract

The Incidence of Norovirus-Associated Gastroenteritis Outbreaks in Victoria, Australia (2002–2007) and Their Relationship with Rainfall

DOI: 10.3390/ijerph7072822

Keywords: norovirus, rainfall, lag, outbreaks

Full-Text   Cite this paper   Add to My Lib


The relationship between the incidence of norovirus-associated gastroenteritis outbreaks (NAGOs) in Victoria, Australia for the period 2002–2007 and rainfall was examined. Statistical analysis involving the correlation between time series indicated that there was a statistically significant (p < 0.05) correlation between monthly NAGO incidence and average monthly rainfall. There was a lag of an average of about three months between peak average rainfall and a NAGO epidemic. The findings thus indicate rainfall can influence NAGO incidence. In an era where there is concern about the potential effects of global warming on weather patterns, it should be borne in mind that future changes in NAGO incidence may reflect altered world weather patterns.


[1]  Dowell, SF. Seasonal variation in host susceptibility and cycles of certain infectious diseases. Emerg. Infect. Dis?2001, 7, 369–374.
[2]  Altizer, S; Dobson, A; Hosseini, P; Hudson, P; Pascual, M; Rohani, P. Seasonality and dynamics of infectious diseases. Ecol. Lett?2006, 9, 467–484.
[3]  Bi, P; Zhang, Y; Parton, KA. Weather variables and Japanese encephalitis in the metropolitan area of Jinan city, China. J. Infect?2007, 55, 551–556.
[4]  Nastos, PT; Matzarakis, A. Weather impacts on respiratory infections in Athens, Greece. Int. J. Biometeorol?2006, 50, 358–369.
[5]  D’Souza, RM; Hall, G; Becker, NG. Climatic factors associated with hospitalizations for rotavirus diarrhoea in children under 5 years of age. Epidemiol. Infect?2008, 136, 56–64.
[6]  Hashizume, M; Armstrong, B; Wagatsuma, Y; Faruque, ASG; Hayashi, T; Sack, DA. Rotavirus infections and climate variability in Dhaka, Bangladesh: A time-series analysis. Epidemiol. Infect?2008, 136, 1281–1289.
[7]  Marshall, JA; Bruggink, LD. Laboratory diagnosis of norovirus. Clin. Lab?2006, 52, 571–581.
[8]  Marshall, JA; Dimitriadis, A; Wright, PJ. Molecular and epidemiological features of norovirus-associated gastroenteritis outbreaks in Victoria, Australia in 2001. J. Med. Virol?2005, 75, 321–331.
[9]  Bruggink, LD; Marshall, JA. Norovirus epidemics are linked to two distinct sets of controlling factors. Int. J. Infect. Dis?2009, 13, e125–e126.
[10]  Bruggink, L; Marshall, J. Molecular changes in the norovirus polymerase gene and their association with incidence of GII.4 norovirus-associated gastroenteritis outbreaks in Victoria, Australia, 2001–2005. Arch. Virol?2008, 153, 729–732.
[11]  Mounts, AW; Ando, T; Koopmans, M; Bresee, JS; Noel, J; Glass, RI. Cold weather seasonality of gastroenteritis associated with Norwalk-like viruses. J. Infect. Dis?2000, 181, S284–S287.
[12]  Nygard, K; Torven, M; Ancker, C; Knauth, SB; Hedlund, K-O; Giesecke, J; Andersson, Y; Svensson, L. Emerging genotype (GGIIb) of norovirus in drinking water, Sweden. Emerg. Infect. Dis?2003, 9, 1548–1552.
[13]  Hewitt, J; Bell, D; Simmons, GC; Rivera-Aban, M; Wolf, S; Greening, GE. Gastroenteritis outbreak caused by waterborne norovirus at a New Zealand ski resort. Appl. Environ. Microbiol?2007, 73, 7853–7857.
[14]  Witlox, KJ; Karapanagiotidis, T; Bruggink, LD; Marshall, JA. The effect of fecal turbidity on norovirus detection by reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction. Diagn. Microbiol. Infect. Dis?2010, 66, 230–232.
[15]  Witlox, KJ; Nguyen, TN; Bruggink, LD; Catton, MG; Marshall, JA. A comparative evaluation of the sensitivity of two automated and two manual nucleic acid extraction methods for the detection of norovirus by RT-PCR. J. Virol. Methods?2008, 150, 70–72.
[16]  Yuen, LKW; Catton, MG; Cox, BJ; Wright, PJ; Marshall, JA. Heminested multiplex reverse transcription-PCR for detection and differentiation of Norwalk-like virus genogroups 1 and 2 in fecal samples. J. Clin. Microbiol?2001, 39, 2690–2694.
[17]  Haugh, LD. Checking the independence of two covariance-stationary time series: A univariate residual cross-correlation approach. J. Am. Stat. Assoc?1976, 71, 378–385.
[18]  Chatfield, C. The Analysis of Time Series An Introduction, 5th ed ed.; Chapman & Hall: London, UK, 1996.
[19]  Levine, DM; Stephan, D; Krehbiel, TC; Berenson, ML. , 3rd ed ed. Pearson Education/Prentice-Hall International: Upper Saddle River, NJ, USA, 1997.


comments powered by Disqus