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Strategy as Options on the Future-the Environment Catalysis Dimension

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Abstract:

Since it is difficult to predict the future using the concept of strategy as options on the future introduced by Peter J. Williamson is a way of circumventing this insecurity. This study further develops this theory by introducing a process or framework for choosing the options based on scenario analysis. By using scenario analysis small glimpses of possible futures can be seen and by selecting options present in two or more scenarios significantly increase the probability of option realisation. The study also contains a discussion on how frequent new options should be added to the options portfolio and how this frequency should be decided upon. Finally the possibility to increase the probabilities of the options by adding a dimension, the environment catalysis dimension, to the model suggested by Williamson is presented.

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