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Estimating high levels exceedance probabilities by point process approach with applications to northern Moravia precipitation and discharges series

DOI: 10.2478/v10098-009-0015-z

Keywords: Precipitation and Discharges Series, High Level Exceedance Probabilities, Modeling Tails of Multivariate Distribution, Peaks over Threshold Method, Modeling Dependence Structure, Inverse Arguments Tail Dependence Function

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Abstract:

The paper by Jaru ková and Hanek (2006) advocated application of the peaks over threshold method (POT method) for estimating the probability that a precipitation or discharges series exceeds a chosen high level. If daily precipitation amounts or average discharges are obtained at several stations one might be interested in estimating the probability that in the same time all variables of interest, e.g. precipitation amounts measured at several stations, exceed some chosen high levels. The paper explains how the method based on the point process approach may be used to get good estimates of such probabilities. Moreover, it presents some useful parametric models that were successfully applied by the author to some precipitation and discharges series of northern Moravia.

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