All Title Author
Keywords Abstract

Publish in OALib Journal
ISSN: 2333-9721
APC: Only $99

ViewsDownloads

Relative Articles

More...
冰川冻土  2015 

青藏高原气温序列的均一性研究

DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2015.0031, PP. 275-285

Keywords: 青藏高原,气温,均一性,元数据

Full-Text   Cite this paper   Add to My Lib

Abstract:

气象观测资料是气候变化研究的基础,对气象资料进行均一性检验与订正能够提高气候变化研究的精度和准确性.利用青藏高原及周边地区1961-2010年65个气象站的逐月平均气温资料,运用PMFT方法对资料进行均一性检验与订正.结果表明高原平均气温资料均一性状况较差,有32个站被检测出存在间断点,占总数的49%.用订正后均一的气温数据分析得出,高原1961-2010年年平均气温的升温率为0.32℃·(10a)-1,春、夏、秋、冬季的升温率依次为0.24℃·(10a)-1、0.26℃·(10a)-1、0.32℃·(10a)-1及0.48℃·(10a)-1,略小于用原始数据分析得到的结果.研究还发现,数据均一与否对高原整体气候变化分析结果影响不大,但对局地尺度的气候变化分析结果影响较大.鉴于高原的气候变化具有显著的区域差异性特征,因此,未来在对高原进行气候变化的差异性进行研究时,气象数据均一性的检验与订正工作就显得尤为重要.为提高数据均一性检验的精度,未来应加强气候资料均一性检验技术的研究并尽可能详尽地收集台站的元数据信息.

References

[1]  Song Chaohui, Liu Xiaoning, Li Jiming. A study of testing methods on inhomogeneity of temperature sequences[J]. Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology, 1995, 6(3): 289-296. [宋超辉, 刘小宁, 李集明. 气温序列非均一性检验方法的研究[J]. 应用气象学报, 1995, 6(3): 289-296.]
[2]  Vincent L A. A Technique for the identification of inhomogeneities in Canadian temperature series[J]. Journal of Climate, 1998, 11: 1094-1104.
[3]  Vincent L A, Zhang X, Bonsal B R, et al. Homogenization of daily temperatures over Canada[J]. Journal of Climate, 2002, 15: 1322-1334.
[4]  Li Q X, Liu X N, Zhang H Z, et al. Detecting and adjusting temporal inhomogeneity in Chinese mean surface air temperature data[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2004, 21(2): 260-268.
[5]  Begert M, Schlegel T, Kirchhofer W. Homogeneous temperature and precipitation series of Switzerland from 1964 to 2000[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2005, 25: 65-80.
[6]  Peterson T C, Easterling D R, Karl T R, et al. Homogeneity adjustments of in situ atmospheric climate data: a review[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 1998, 18: 1493-1517.
[7]  Alexandersson H. A homogeneity test applied to precipitation data[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 1986, 6: 661-675.
[8]  Easterling D R, Peterson T C. A new method for detecting for undocumented discontinuities in climatological time series[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 1995, 15: 369-377.
[9]  Szentimrey T. Multiple analysis of series for homogenization (MASH)[C]//Proceedings of the 2nd Seminar for Homogenization of Surface Climatological Data. Budapest, Hungary: WMO, 1999: 27-46.
[10]  Wang X L, Wen Q H, Wu Y. Penalized maximal t test for detecting undocumented mean change in climate data series[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 2007, 46: 916-931.
[11]  Aguilar E, Auer I, Brunet M, et al. Guidance on metadata and homogenization, WMO-TD No. 1186[R]. Geneva, Switzerland: WMO, 2003.
[12]  Easterling D R, Peterson T C. The effect of artificial discontinuities on recent trends in minimum and maximum temperatures[J]. Atmospheric Research, 1995, 37: 19-26.
[13]  Zhang Libo, Zheng Xuanjun, Zhao Huijuan, et al. The homogeneity detecting on historical meteorological data at Shaoxing based on the grouping method[J]. Bulletin of Science and Technology, 2013, 29(5): 13-18. [张立波, 郑选军, 赵慧娟, 等. 集合法对绍兴站历史气候资料的均一性检验[J]. 科技通报, 2013, 29(5): 13-18.]
[14]  Song Chaohui, Sun Anjian. The research on adjusting inhomogeneity temperature series[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 1995, 14(2): 215-220. [宋超辉, 孙安健. 非均一性气温气候序列订正方法的研究[J]. 高原气象, 1995, 14(2): 215-220.]
[15]  Li Z, Yan Z W. Homogenized daily mean/maximum/minimum temperature series for China from 1960-2008[J]. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 2009, 2(4): 237-243.
[16]  Li Qingxiang, Zhang Hongzheng, Liu Xiaoning, et al. The homogenized historical temperature dataset over China (1951-2004) (Version 1.0)[DB/DK]. Beijing: Meteorological Data Room of China National Meteorological Information Center, 2006. [李庆祥, 张洪政, 刘小宁, 等. 中国均一化历史气温数据集(1951-2004)(1.0版)[DB/DK]. 北京: 国家气象信息中心气象资料室, 2006.]
[17]  Cao Lijuan, Ju Xiaohui, Liu Xiaoning. Penalized maximal F test for the homogeneity study of the annual mean wind speed over China[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2010, 36(10): 52-56. [曹丽娟, 鞠晓慧, 刘小宁. PMFT方法对我国平均风速的均一性检验[J]. 气象, 2010, 36(10): 52-56.]
[18]  Liu Xiaoning, Sun Anjian. An inhomogeneity test study of annual precipitation series[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 1995, 21(8): 3-6. [刘小宁, 孙安健. 年降水量序列非均一性检验方法探讨[J]. 气象, 1995, 21(8): 3-6.]
[19]  Wang Qiuxiang, Li Qingxiang, Zhou Haonan, et al. Homogeneity study and comparison analysis on precipitation series over China[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2012, 38(11): 1390-1398. [王秋香, 李庆祥, 周昊楠, 等. 中国降水序列均一性研究及对比分析[J]. 气象, 2012, 38(11): 1390-1398.]
[20]  Zhang Gaojie, He Jinhai, Zhou Zijiang, et al. Homogeneity study of precipitation data over China using RHtest method[J]. Meteorological Science and Technology, 2012, 40(6): 914-921. [张高杰, 何金海, 周自江, 等. RHtest方法对我国降水资料的均一性检验试验[J]. 气象科技, 2012, 40(6): 914-921.]
[21]  Cao Lijuan, Yan Zhongwei. Progresses in research of homogenization of climate data[J]. Progressus Inquisitiones de Mutatione Climatis, 2011, 7(2): 129-135. [曹丽娟, 严中伟. 地面气候资料均一性研究进展[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2011, 7(2): 129-135.]
[22]  Pepin N C, Lundquist J D. Temperature trends at high elevations: patterns across the globe[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2008, 35. doi:10.1029/2008GL034026.
[23]  Qiu J. The third pole[J]. Nature, 2008, 454: 393-396.
[24]  Lau K M, Kim M K, Kim K M. Asian summer monsoon anomalies induced by aerosol direct forcing: the role of the Tibetan Plateau[J]. Climate Dynamics, 2006, 26: 855-864.
[25]  Jiao Yang, You Qinglong, Lin Houbo, et al. The Arctic Oscillation effect on winter warming over the Tibetan Plateau[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2014, 36(6): 1385-1393. [焦洋, 游庆龙, 林厚博, 等. 北极涛动对青藏高原冬季变暖的影响[J]. 冰川冻土, 2014, 36(6): 1385-1393.]
[26]  Pan Baotian, Li Jijun. Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: a driver and amplifier of the global climatic changes III: The effects of the uplift of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau on climatic changes[J]. Journal of Lanzhou University (Natural Sciences), 1996, 32(1): 108-115. [潘保田, 李吉均. 青藏高原: 全球气候变化的驱动机与放大器III: 青藏高原隆起对气候变化的影响[J]. 兰州大学学报(自然科学版), 1996, 32(1): 108-115.]
[27]  Yue Guangyang, Zhao Lin, Zhao Yonghua, et al. Relationship between soil properties in permafrost active layer and surface vegetation in Xidatan on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2013, 35(3): 565-573. [岳广阳, 赵林, 赵拥华, 等. 青藏高原西大滩多年冻土活动层土壤性状与地表植被的关系[J]. 冰川冻土, 2013, 35(3): 565-573.]
[28]  Ruan Guofeng, Zhang Jianming, Chai Mingtang. Risk division of thaw settlement hazard along Qinghai-Tibet Engineering Corridor under climate change[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2014, 36(4): 811-817. [阮国峰, 张建明, 柴明堂. 气候变化情景下青藏工程走廊融沉灾害风险性区划研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 2014, 36(4): 811-817.]
[29]  Sun Zhizhong, Wu Guilong, Yun Hanbo, et al. Permafrost degradation under an embankment of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway in the southern limit of permafrost[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2014, 36(4): 767-771. [孙志忠, 武贵龙, 贠汉伯, 等. 多年冻土南界附近青藏铁路路基下的冻土退化[J]. 冰川冻土, 2014, 36(4): 767-771.]
[30]  Liu Xiaodong, Hou Ping. Relationship between the climatic warming over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and its surrounding areas in recent 30 years and the elevation[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 1998, 17(3): 245-249. [刘晓东, 侯萍. 青藏高原及其邻近地区近30年气候变暖与海拔高度的关系[J]. 高原气象, 1998, 17(3): 245-249.]
[31]  Liu X D, Chen B D. Climatic warming in the Tibetan Plateau during recent decades[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2000, 20: 1729-1742.
[32]  Li Lin, Zhu Xide, Qin Ningsheng, et al. Study on temperature variations and its anomaly patterns over Qinghai-Xizang Plateau[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2003, 22(5): 524-530. [李林, 朱西德, 秦宁生, 等. 青藏高原气温变化及其异常类型的研究[J]. 高原气象, 2003, 22(5): 524-530.]
[33]  Liu X D, Yin Z Y, Shao X M, et al. Temporal trends and variability of daily maximum and minimum, extreme temperature events, and growing season length over the eastern and central Tibetan Plateau during 1961-2003[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research, 2006, 111. doi:10.1029/2005JD006915.
[34]  Wang Qingchun, Qin Ningsheng, Tang Hongyu, et al. Study on climate change facts and their characteristics in the Qinghai Plateau in recent 44 years[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2007, 24(2): 234-239. [汪青春, 秦宁生, 唐红玉, 等. 青海高原近44年来气候变化的事实及其特征[J]. 干旱区研究, 2007, 24(2): 234-239.]
[35]  Wang B, Bao Q, Hoskins B, et al. Tibetan Plateau warming and precipitation changes in East Asia[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2008, 35. doi:10.1029/2008GL034330.
[36]  You Q L, Kang S C, Pepin N, et al. Relationship between trends in temperature extremes and elevation in the eastern and central Tibetan Plateau, 1961-2005[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2008, 35. doi:10.1029/2007GL032669.
[37]  Jiang Yongjian, Li Shijie, Shen Defu, et al. Climate change and its impact on the lake environment in the Tibetan Plateau in 1971-2008[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2012, 32(12): 1503-1512. [姜永见, 李世杰, 沈德福, 等. 青藏高原近40年来气候变化特征及湖泊环境响应[J]. 地理科学, 2012, 32(12): 1503-1512.]
[38]  Cai Ying, Li Dongliang, Tang Maocang, et al. Decadal temperature changes over Qinghai-Xizang Plateau in recent 50 years[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2003, 22(5): 464-470. [蔡英, 李栋梁, 汤懋苍, 等. 青藏高原近50年来气温的年代际变化[J]. 高原气象, 2003, 22(5): 464-470.]
[39]  Frauenfeld O W, Zhang T J, Serreze M C. Climate change and variability using European centre for medium-range weather forecasts reanalysis (ERA-40) temperatures on the Tibetan Plateau[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research, 2005, 110. doi:10.1029/2004JD005230.
[40]  Duan A M, Wu G X. Change of cloud amount and the climate warming on the Tibetan Plateau[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2006, 33. doi:10.1029/2006GL027946.
[41]  Zhang Aiying, Ren Guoyu, Zhou Jiangxing, et al. On the urbanization effect on surface air temperature trends over China[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2010, 68(6): 957-966. [张爱英, 任国玉, 周江兴, 等. 中国地面气温变化趋势中的城市化影响偏差[J]. 气象学报, 2010, 68(6): 957-966.]
[42]  Guo D L, Wang H J. The significant climate warming in the northern Tibetan Plateau and its possible causes[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2011. doi:10.1002/joc.2388.
[43]  You Q L, Kang S C, Pepin N, et al. Relationship between temperature trend magnitude, elevation and mean temperature in the Tibetan Plateau from homogenized surface stations and reanalysis data[J]. Global and Planetary Change, 2010, 71(1): 124-133.
[44]  Wu Shaohong, Yin Yunhe, Zheng Du, et al. Climate change in the Tibetan Plateau during the last three decades[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2005, 60(1): 3-11. [吴绍洪, 尹云鹤, 郑度, 等. 青藏高原近30年气候变化趋势[J]. 地理学报, 2005, 60(1): 3-11.]
[45]  Li Lin, Chen Xiaoguang, Wang Zhenyu, et al. Climate change and its regional differences over the Tibetan Plateau[J]. Progressus Inquisitiones de Mutatione Climatis, 2010, 6(3): 181-186. [李林, 陈晓光, 王振宇, 等. 青藏高原区域气候变化及其差异性研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2010, 6(3): 181-186.]
[46]  Yin Yunhe, Wu Shaohong, Zhao Dongsheng, et al. Impact of climate change on actual evapotranspiration on the Tibetan Plateau during 1981-2010[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2012, 67(11): 1471-1481. [尹云鹤, 吴绍洪, 赵东升, 等. 1981-2010年气候变化对青藏高原实际蒸散的影响[J]. 地理学报, 2012, 67(11): 1471-1481.]
[47]  Zhang X B, Aguilar E, Sensoy S, et al. Trends in Middle East climate extreme indices from 1950 to 2003[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research, 2005, 110. doi:10.1029/2005JD006181.
[48]  You Q L, Kang S C, Aguilar E, et al. Changes in daily climate extremes in the eastern and central Tibetan Plateau during 1961-2005[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research, 2008, 113. doi:10.1029/2007JD009389.
[49]  You Q L, Kang S C, Aguilar E, et al. Changes in daily climate extremes in China and their connection to the large scale atmospheric circulation during 1961-2003[J]. Climate Dynamics, 2011, 36: 2399-2417.
[50]  Wang X L. Comments on "Detection of undocumented change points: a revision of the two-phase regression model"[J]. Journal of Climate, 2003, 16: 3383-3385.
[51]  Wang X L. Accounting for autocorrelation in detecting mean-shifts in climate data series using the penalized maximal t or F test[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 2008, 47: 2423-2444.
[52]  Wang X L. Penalized maximal F test for detecting undocumented mean shift without trend change[J]. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 2008, 25: 368-384.
[53]  Yan Z W, Li Z, Li Q X, et al. Effects of site change and urbanisation in the Beijing temperature series 1977-2006[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2010, 30(8): 1226-1234.
[54]  Zhu Xide, Li Lin, Li Qingxiang, et al. Homogenization treatment of Qinghai Province historical climate data station migration[J]. Journal of Qinghai Meteorology, 2010(2): 6-9. [朱西德, 李林, 李庆祥, 等. 青海省历史气候资料迁站资料的均一化处理[J]. 青海气象, 2010(2): 6-9.]
[55]  Wu Zengxiang. Preliminary analyses of the information on meteorological station historical evolution and its impacts on homogeneity of observational records[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 2005, 16(4): 461-467. [吴增祥. 气象台站历史沿革信息及其对观测资料序列均一性影响的初步分析[J]. 应用气象学报, 2005, 16(4): 461-467.]
[56]  Ren Guoyu, Chu Ziying, Zhou Yaqing, et al. Recent progresses in studies of regional temperature changes in China[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2005, 10(4): 701-716. [任国玉, 初子莹, 周雅清, 等. 中国气温变化研究最新进展[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2005, 10(4): 701-716.]
[57]  Li Z, Yan Z W. Application of multiple analysis of series for homogenization to Beijing daily temperature series (1960-2006)[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2010, 27(4): 777-787.
[58]  Li Q X, Dong W J. Detection and adjustment of undocumented discontinuities in Chinese temperature series using a composite approach[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2009, 26(1): 143-153.
[59]  Liu Jia, Ma Zhenfeng, Fan Guangzhou, et al. Research on the comparison of different homogeneity test methods[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2012, 38(9): 1121-1128. [刘佳, 马振峰, 范广洲, 等. 多种均一性检验方法比较研究[J]. 气象, 2012, 38(9): 1121-1128.]

Full-Text

Contact Us

service@oalib.com

QQ:3279437679

WhatsApp +8615387084133