Analysis of the Impact of Sino-Thai Bilateral Trade on Cross-Border Tourism under the Background of the “Belt and Road” Initiative

This study identifies key factors influencing cross-border tourism numbers, providing a scientific basis for enhancing the tourism appeal and international competitiveness of both China and Thailand. Using macroeconomic data from 1995 to 2022, this thesis analyzes the impact of Sino-Thai bilateral trade on cross-border tourism numbers. The dependent variables are the number of cross-border tourists entering China and Thailand, while the independent variable is the Sino-Thai bilateral trade volume. Control variables include China’s per capita GDP, Thailand’s per capita GDP, the exchange rates of the Chinese Yuan and Thai Baht, and the “Belt and Road” Initiative. The empirical results indicate that Sino-Thai bilateral trade positively influences the number of cross-border tourists entering both China and Thailand. The growth of China’s per capita GDP has a negative impact on the number of tourists entering China but a positive impact on the number entering Thailand. Conversely, the growth of Thailand’s per capita GDP positively impacts the number of tourists entering both countries. A depreciation of the Chinese Yuan negatively affects the number of tourists entering China but positively affects those entering Thailand. A depreciation of the Thai Baht positively impacts the number of tourists entering both countries. The “Belt and Road” Initiative positively influences the number of cross-border tourists entering both China and Thailand. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant negative impact on the number of inbound tourists to both China and Thailand, which puts considerable pressure on the development of the tourism industries in both countries.