江西省九江市降水变化特征分析
Analysis of Precipitation Change Characteristics in Jiujiang City of Jiangxi Province

为了深入了解九江地区的降水特征和趋势变化，优化农业生产，本文利用九江市8个站点1961~2020年的降水资料，采用线性趋势分析法、Mann-Kendall检验法、滑动T检验、小波分析和重标极差分析法，分析了九江市年、季降水量在长时间尺度上的变化特征。研究表明：1) 九江市近60a的年降水量呈上升趋势，降水倾向率为32.86 mm/10a。其中，春季降水量呈微弱的下降趋势，夏、秋、冬季降水量均为上升趋势；2) 在0.05的显著性水平下，年降水量突变点出现在1969、1978和2012年，其中1969与2012年出现降水量增长，1978年降水量下降。春季与秋季无明显突变点，夏季降水量的突变点出现在1969年，冬季降水量的突变点出现在1988年，均为增长现象；3) 九江市年、季降水量均存在明显的周期变化，两者的第一主周期均为36a，在该尺度下的变化周期约为23年；四季降水量的第二主周期在20a左右，变化周期约为12年；4) 九江市未来年降水量表现为下降趋势。其中，春季降水量增多，其他季节降水量均为减少趋势。
In order to deeply understand the characteristics and trend changes of precipitation in Jiujiang area and optimize agricultural production, this paper uses the precipitation data of 8 stations in Jiujiang City from 1961 to 2020, and adopts linear trend analysis, Mann-Kendall test, sliding T-test, wavelet analysis and rescaled range analysis. The variation characteristics of annual and seasonal precipitation in Jiujiang City on a long time scale are analyzed. The results are as follows: 1) The annual precipitation in Jiujiang City showed an upward trend in recent 60 years, and the precipitation tendency rate was 32.86 mm/10a. The precipitation in spring showed a slight downward trend, while the precipitation in summer, autumn and winter showed an upward trend. 2) At the significance level of 0.05, the abrupt change points of annual precipitation appeared in 1969, 1978 and 2012, in which precipitation increased in 1969 and 2012, and decreased in 1978. There is no obvious mutation point in spring and autumn, the mutation point of summer precipitation appears in 1969, and the mutation point of winter precipitation appears in 1988, both of which are increasing phenomena. 3) There are obvious periodic changes in annual and seasonal precipitation in Jiujiang City. The first main period of both is 36a, and the change period is about 23 years at this scale. The second main cycle of precipitation in four seasons is about 20a, and the change cycle is about 12 years. 4) The future annual precipitation of Jiujiang City shows a downward trend. Among them, the precipitation in autumn increased, and the precipitation in other seasons showed a decreasing trend.