中国新能源汽车市场扩散研究——基于修正的Bass模型
Research on Market Diffusion of New Energy Vehicles in China—Based on the Improved Bass Model

为了探究中国新能源汽车政府补贴退坡背景下的市场扩散情形，本文在广义的Bass模型上进行了修正，探究中国新能源汽车在不同情形下的扩散路径。研究发现新能源汽车在推广过程中受已采用者的影响较大，已购买者的宣传和推荐可以加速新能源汽车的扩散，消费者在购买新能源汽车时重点关注使用成本，油价变化不会对新能源汽车的市场扩散产生较大影响，以及电池技术与新能源汽车的扩散速度成正比。
For the purpose of investigating the diffusion of China’s new energy vehicle market in the context of government subsidy withdrawal, this paper modifies the Bass model to investigate the diffusion paths of new energy vehicles in China under different scenarios. It is found that the promotion of new energy vehicles is strongly influenced by adopters, the publicity and recommendation of purchasers can accelerate the diffusion of new energy vehicles, consumers focus on the cost of use when purchasing new energy vehicles. In addition, changes in oil prices do not have a large impact on the market diffusion of new energy vehicles, and battery technology is directly proportional to the speed of diffusion of new energy vehicles.