Long-term drought has occurred in all regions of Brazil, and its effects have been more intense in recent decades. Poor management of drought can exacerbate significant consequences, severely compromising water, food, energy, economic security, natural systems, and high fire risk that can affect biomes. It also slowly and indirectly affects the society living on vulnerable geographic space. This article discusses a methodology for assessing the drought risk management capacity at the municipal level in Brazil, and this new approach is statistically based using environmental data provided by the municipalities, from observational networks to data banks and remotely sensed data. It presents a method to indicate the steps of priority actions for the phases of drought management. It also characterized the long-term drought in Brazil (hydrological drought) between 1982 and 2022. The proposed approach provides a better understanding and the use of various drought indices to develop the most appropriate action steps for mitigation and adaptation. The final goal is to increase the resilience for those affected by drought. The work was developed based on the actions defined by the Brazilian Federal Government (Preparation, Prevention, Mitigation, Response, Recovery, and Restoration). This aims to improve the management of risk and disaster typified as drought in Brazil and to contribute with scientific knowledge to legislators regarding adaptation and resilience policies to drought extremes in parts of the country. At the end, we expect to highlight to managers and decision-makers the critical points in the government’s proactive and reactive actions to drought that need to be better managed.
References
[1]
Alvalá R. C. S., Dias, M. C. A., Saito, S. M., Stenner, C., Franco, C., Amadeu, P., Ribeiro, J., Santana, R. A. S. M., & Nobre, C. A. (2019b). Mapping Characteristics of the At-Risk Population. International Journal Disaster Risk Reduction, 41, Article ID: 101326. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101326
[2]
Alvalá, R. C. S., Cunha, A. P. M., Brito, S. S. B., Seluchi, M. E., Marengo, J. A., Moraes, O. L. L. M., & Carvalho, M. A. (2019a). Drought Monitoring in the Brazilian Semiarid Region. Annals of the Brazilian Academy of Sciences, 91, e20170209. https://doi.org/10.1590/0001-3765201720170209
[3]
ANA (Agência Nacional de águas) (2023). Monitor de Seca no Brasil. http://monitordesecas.ana.gov.br/
[4]
Andujar E., Krakauer, N. Y., Yi, C., & Kogan, F. (2017). Ecosystem Drought Response Timescales from Thermal Emission versus Shortwave Remote Sensing. Advances in Meteorology, 2017, Article ID: 8434020. https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/8434020
[5]
Bana e Costa, J. C. et al. (2003). MACBETH. LSE OR Working Paper 0356, 1-40.
[6]
Bana e Costa, J. C., Chagas, M. P., Corrêa, é. C., João, I. M., Lopes, D., Lopes, F. M., Lourenço, J. C., Sánchez-López, R., Sobrinho, R., Lavoie, R., & Rodrigues, T. (2017). M-MACBETH. User’s Guide. http://m-macbeth.com/
[7]
Brasil (2012). Anuário Brasileiro de Desastres Naturais 2011, Brasília. https://www.mdr.gov.br/images/stories/ArquivosDefesaCivil/ArquivosPDF/publicacoes/Anuario-de-Desastres-Naturais-2011.pdf
[8]
Brasil (2013). Anuário Brasileiro de Desastres Naturais 2012, Brasília. https://www.mdr.gov.br/images/stories/ArquivosDefesaCivil/ArquivosPDF/publicacoes/AnuariodeDesastresNaturais_2013.pdf
[9]
Brasil (2014). Anuário Brasileiro de Desastres Naturais 2013, Brasília. https://www.mdr.gov.br/images/stories/ArquivosDefesaCivil/ArquivosPDF/publicacoes/Anurio-Brasileiro-de-Desastres-Naturais-2013.pdf
[10]
Brasil (2015). Lei 13.153, de 30 de julho de 2015, Institui a Política Nacional de Combate à Desertificação e Mitigação dos Efeitos da Seca e seus instrumentos; prevê a criação da Comissão Nacional de Combate à Desertificação; e dá outras providências. http://www.planalto.gov.br/ccivil_03/_Ato2015-2018/2015/Lei/L13153.htm
[11]
Brasil (2020a). Decreto No 10.593, de 24 de dezembro de 2020, Dispõe sobre a organização e o funcionamento do Sistema Nacional de Proteção e Defesa Civil e do Conselho Nacional de Proteção e Defesa Civil e sobre o Plano Nacional de Proteção e Defesa Civil e o Sistema Nacional de Informações sobre Desastres, Brasília. https://www.in.gov.br/en/web/dou/-/decreto-n-10.593-de-24-de-dezembro-de-2020-296427343
[12]
Brasil (2020b). Instrução Normativa N° 36, de 4 de dezembro de 2020, Brasília. https://www.in.gov.br/en/web/dou/-/instrucao-normativa-n-36-de-4-de-dezembro-de-2020-292423788
[13]
Brasil (2022). Portaria No 260, de 2 de fevereiro de 2022, Estabelece procedimentos e critérios para o reconhecimento federal e para a declaração de situação de emergência ou estado de calamidade pública pelos Municípios, Estados e Distrito Federal. https://www.in.gov.br/web/dou/-/portaria-n-260-de-2-de-fevereiro-de-2022-378040321
[14]
CEMADEN (Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais) (2023). Monitoramento de Secas e Impactos no Brasil. http://www.cemaden.gov.br/
[15]
CEPED/UFSC (Centro de Estudos e Pesquisas em Engenharia e Defesa Civil/Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina) (2020). Relatório de Danos Materiais e Prejuízos Decorrentes de Desastres Naturais no Brasil: 1995-2019. 2a edição. Centro de Estudos e Pesquisas em Engenharia e Defesa Civil. Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina. Florianópolis: Ceped/UFSC.
[16]
CEPED/UFSC (Centro de Estudos e Pesquisas em Engenharia e Defesa Civil/Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina) (2023). Atlas Digital de Desastres no Brasil. http://atlasdigital.mdr.gov.br/
[17]
CGEE (Centro de Gestão e Estudos Estratégicos) (2016). Secas no Brasil: Política e Gestão Proativas. Centro de Gestão e Estudos Estratégicos, Brasília. https://www.cgee.org.br/documents/10195/11009696/seca_brasil-web.pdf/793de1a2-157e-4098-b84a-9d2348266252?version=1.4
[18]
Cherlet, M., Hutchinson, C., Reynolds, J., Hill, J., Sommer, S., & Von Maltitz, G. World Atlas of Desertification. 2018. Publication Office of the European Union, 248 p.
[19]
Crausbay, S. D., Ramirez, A. R., Carter, S. L., Cross, M. S., Hall, K. R., Bathke, D. J., Betancourt, J. L., Colt, S., Cravens, A. E., Dalton, M. S., Dunham, J. B., Hay, L. E., Hayes, M. J., McEvoy, J., McNutt, C. A., Moritz, M. A., Nislow, K. H., Raheem, N., & Sanford, T. (2017). Defining Ecological Drought for the Twenty-First Century. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 98, 2543-2550. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0292.1
[20]
Cuartas, L. A., Cunha, A. P. M. A., Alves, J. A., Parra, L. M. P., Deusdará Leal, K., Costa, L. C. O., Molina, R. D., Amore, D., Broedel, E., Seluchi, M. E., Cunningham, C., Alvalá, R. C. S., & Marengo, J. A. (2022). Recent Hydrological Droughts in Brazil and Their Impact on Hydropower Generation. Water, 14, Article 601. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14040601
[21]
Cunha, A. P. M. A., Zeri, M., Leal, K. D., Costa, L., Cuartas, L. A., Marengo, J. A., Tomasella, J., Vieira, R. M., Barbosa, A. A., & Cunningham, C. (2019). Extreme Drought Events over Brazil from 2011 to 2019. Atmosphere, 10, Article 642. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10110642
[22]
Funk, C., Peterson, P., Landsfeld, M., Pedreros, D., Verdin, J., Shukla, S., Husak, G., Rowland, J., Harrison, L., Hoell, A., & Michaelsoen, J. (2015). The Climate Hazards Infrared Precipitation with Stations—A New Environmental Record for Monitoring Extremes. Scientific Data, 2, Article ID: 15006. https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2015.66
[23]
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2012). Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press.
[24]
Kogan, F. N. (1990). Remote Sensing of Weather Impacts on Vegetation in Non-Homogeneous Areas. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 11, 1405-1419. https://doi.org/10.1080/01431169008955102
[25]
Kogan, F. N. (1995). Droughts of the Late 1980s in the United States as Derived from NOAA Polarorbiting Satellite Data. Bulletin of the American Meteorology Society, 76, 655-668. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1995)076<0655:DOTLIT>2.0.CO;2
[26]
Kogan, F. N. (1997). Global Drought Watch from Space. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 78, 621-636. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<0621:GDWFS>2.0.CO;2
[27]
Kogan, F. N. (2001). Operational Space Technology for Global Vegetation Assessments. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 82, 1949-1964. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/82/9/1520-0477_2001_082_1949_ostfgv_2_3_co_2.xml https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(2001)082<1949:OSTFGV>2.3.CO;2
[28]
Kogan, F. N., Yang, B., Wei, G., Pei, Z. Y., & Jiao, X. F. (2005). Modelling Corn Production in China Using AVHRR-Based Vegetation Health Indices. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 26, 2325-2336. https://doi.org/10.1080/01431160500034235
[29]
Libonati, R., Geirinhas, J. L., Silva, O. S., Russo, A., Rodrigues, J. A., Belém, L. B. C., Nogueira, J., Roque, F. O., DaCamara, C. C., & Nunes, A. M. B. (2022). Assessing the Role of Compound Drought and Heatwave Events on Unprecedented 2020 Wildfires in the Pantanal. Environmental Research Letters, 17, Article 015005. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac462e
[30]
Libonati, R., Pereira, J. M. C., Da Camara, C. C., Peres, L. F., Oom, D., Rodrigues, J. A., Santos, F. L. M., Trigo, R. M., Gouveia, C. M. P., Machado-Silva, F., Enrich-Prast, A., & Silva, J. M. N. (2021). Twenty-First Century Droughts Have Not Increasingly Exacerbated Fire Season Severity in the Brazilian Amazon. Scientific Reports, 11, Article No. 4400. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-82158-8
[31]
Marengo, J. A., álves, L. M., Alvalá, R. C. S., Cunha, A. P. M. A., Brito, S., & Moraes, O. L. L. (2018). Climatic Characteristics of the 2010-2016 Drought in the Semiarid Northeast Brazil Region. Annals of the Brazilian Academy of Sciences, 90, 1973-1985. https://doi.org/10.1590/0001-3765201720170206
[32]
Marengo, J. A., Cunha, A. P. M. A., Cuartas, L. A., Deusdará Leal, Broedel, K. R., E., Seluchi, M. E., Michelin, C. M., De Praga, B. C. F., Chuchón, Â. E., Almeida, E. K. A., Kazmierczak, M. L., Mateus, N. P. A., Silva, R. C., & Bender, F. (2021). Extreme Drought in the Brazilian Pantanal in 2019-2020: Characterization, Causes, and Impacts. Frontiers in Water, 3, Article 639204. https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2021.639204
[33]
McKee, T. B., Doesken, N. J., & Kleist, J. (1993). The Relationship of Drought Frequency and Duration to Time Scales. In Eight Conference on Applied Climatology (pp. 179-183). American Meteorological Society.
[34]
Mishra, A. K., & Singh, V. P. (2010). A Review of Drought Concepts. Journal of Hydrology, 391, 202-216. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.012
[35]
Mo, K. C., & Lettenmaier, D. P. (2016). Precipitation Deficit Flash Droughts over the United States. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 17, 1169-1184. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-15-0158.1
[36]
Naumann, G., Podestá, G., Marengo, J. A., Luterbacher, J., Bavera, D., Arias Muñoz, C., Barbosa, P., Cammalleri, C., Chamorro, L., Cuartas, L. A., Jager A., Escobar, C., Hidalgo, C., Leal de Moraes, O., McCormick, N., Maetens, W., Magni, D., Masante, D., Mazzeschi, M., Seluchi, M. E., Skansi, M. M., Spinoni, J., & Toreti, A. (2021). The 2019-2021 Extreme Drought Episode in La Plata Basin. EUR 30833 EN, Publications Office of the European Union, 48 p.
[37]
NDMC (National Climatic Data Center) (2023). Types of Drought. https://drought.unl.edu/Education/DroughtIn-depth/TypesofDrought.aspx
[38]
NOAA STAR (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) (2023). Global Vegetation Health Products. US Department of Commerce NOAA. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/
[39]
Nobre, C. A., Marengo, J. A., & Seluchi, M. E. (2016). Some Characteristics and Impacts of the Drought and Water Crisis in Southeastern Brazil during 2014 and 2015. Journal of Water Resource and Protection, 8, 252-262. https://doi.org/10.4236/jwarp.2016.82022
[40]
Otto, F. E. L., Coelho, C. A. S., Perez, A. K. E. C., Wada, Y., Oldenborgh, G. J., Haarsma, R., Haustein, K., Uhe, P., Aalst, M. V., Aravequia, J.A., Almeida, W., & Cullen, H. (2015). Factors Other than Climate Change, Main Drivers of 2014/15 Water Shortage in Southeast Brazil. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 96, S35-S40. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00120.1
[41]
Ravelo, A. C., Planchuelo, A. M., Aroche, R., Cárdenas, J. C. D., Alegría, M. H., Jimenez, R., Maureira, H., Paz, T. P., Tiscornia, G., Zanvettor, R., & Zimmermann, R.. (2016). Estudio de Caso: Corredor seco de El Salvador, Honduras y Nicaragua, Monitoreo y Evaluación de las Sequías en América Central. Joint Research Centre. https://euroclimaplus.org/images/Publicaciones/LibrosEUROCLIMA/JRC_Monitoreo-Evaluacion-Sequias_AmericaCentral.pdf
[42]
S2iD (Sistema Integrado de Informações sobre Desastres) (2023). Sistema Integrado de Informações sobre Desastres. Ministério do Desenvolvimento Regional, Secretaria Nacional de Proteção e Defesa Civil. Relatório Gegencial. https://s2id.mi.gov.br/
[43]
Shukla, S., & Wood, A. W. (2008). Use of a Standardized Runoff Index for Characterizing Hydrologic Drought. Geophysical Research Letters, 35, L02405. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL032487
[44]
Sivakumar, M. V. K., Motha, R. P., Wilhite, D. A., & Wood, D. A. (2011). Agricultural Drought Indices. In Proceedings of the WMO/UNISDR Expert Group Meeting on Agricultural Drought Indices. World Meteorological Organization, 197 p. https://www.droughtmanagement.info/literature/WMO_agricultural_drought_indices_proceedings_2010.pdf
[45]
Souza, K., Sparks, A. H., Ashmall, W., van Etten, J., & Solberg, S. Ø. (2020). Chirps: API Client for the CHIRPS Precipitation Data in R. The Journal of Open Source Software, 5, Article 2419. https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.02419
[46]
Tallaksen, L. M., & Van Lanen, H. A. J. (2004). Hydrological Drought: Processes and Estimation Methods for Streamflow and Groundwater. Elsevier, 579 p.
[47]
Tarpley, J. D., Schneider, S. R., & Money, R. L. (1984). Global Vegetation Indices from the NOAA-7 Meteorological Satellite. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 23, 491-494. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1984)023<0491:GVIFTN>2.0.CO;2
[48]
UNCCD (United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification) (2022). United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification in those Countries Experiencing Serious Drought and/or Desertification, Particularly in Africa. https://www.unccd.int/sites/default/files/2022-02/UNCCD_Convention_ENG_0_0.pdf
[49]
UNDRR (United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction) (2019). Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. https://gar.undrr.org/sites/default/files/reports/2019-05/full_gar_report.pdf
[50]
UNDRR (United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction) (2021). Special Report on Drought 2021. Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. https://www.undrr.org/publication/gar-special-report-drought-2021
[51]
UNISDR (United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction) (2015). International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030. https://www.unisdr.org/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf
[52]
Van Loon, A. F. (2015). Hydrological Drought Explained. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water, 2, 359-392. https://wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/wat2.1085
[53]
Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Beguería, S., & López-Moreno, J. I. (2010). A Multiscalar Drought Index Sensitive to Global Warming: The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. Journal of Climate, 23, 1696-1718. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2909.1
[54]
Wilhite, D. A. (1992). Preparing for Drought: A Guidebook for Developing Countries. United Nations Environment Program. https://wedocs.unep.org/handle/20.500.11822/30153
[55]
Wilhite, D. A. (2000). Chapter 1 Drought as a Natural Hazard: Concepts and Definitions. In Drought Mitigation Center Faculty Publications (pp. 3-18). Routledge. http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtfacpub/69
[56]
Wilhite, D. A., & Glantz, M. H. (1985). Understanding the Drought Phenomenon: The Role of Definitions. Water International, 10, 111-120. https://doi.org/10.1080/02508068508686328
[57]
Wilhite, D. A., Sivakumar, M. V. K., & Pulwarty, R. (2014). Managing Drought Risk in a Changing Climate: The Role of National Drought Policy. Weather and Climate Extremes, 3, 4-13. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094714000164
[58]
WMO; GWP (World Meteorological Organization; Global Water Partnership) (2016). Handbook of Drought Indicators and Indices. https://www.droughtmanagement.info/literature/GWP_Handbook_of_Drought_Indicators_and_Indices_2016.pdf
[59]
Zscheischler, J., Martius, O., Westra, S., Bevacqua, E., Raymond, C., Horton, R. M., Van Den Hurk, B., AghaKouchak, A., Jézéquel, A., Mahecha, M. D., Maraun, D., Ramos, A. M., Ridder, N. N., Thiery, W., & Vignotto, E. (2020). A Typology of Compound Weather and Climate Events. Nature Reviews Earth and Environ, 1, 333-347. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-020-0060-z
[60]
Zscheischler, J., Westra, S., Van Den Hurk, B. J. J. M., Seneviratne, S. I., Ward, P. J., Pitman, A., Aghakouchak, A., Bresch, D. N., Leonard, M., Wahl, T., & Zhang, X. (2018). Future Climate Risk from Compound Events. Nature Climate Change, 8, 469-477. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0156-3
