基于GM(1,1)灰色预测模型对河南省城镇职工基本养老保险基金的收支预测
Based on GM(1,1) Grey Prediction Model, the Income and Expenditure Forecast of the Basic Pension Insurance Fund for Urban Workers in Henan Province

随着我国人口老龄化进程的加快，我国在城镇职工基本养老保险方面的研究也愈发成为重点关注的对象，城镇职工的缴纳人数，覆盖范围，已经具有强有力的规模效应，所以研究区域内(河南省)城镇职工基本养老保险基金的收支问题成为必然且重要的发展趋势。研究目的：预测未来五年河南省城镇职工基本养老保险基金收支情况。研究方法：基于灰色系统理论，收集了自2013~2021年期间的河南省城镇职工基本养老保险基金的收支相关数据，建立了河南省城镇职工养老保险基金收支的GM(1,1)灰色预测模型。研究结果：未来五年2022~2026年河南省城镇职工基本养老保险基金收入和支出规模逐年扩大。研究意义：为区域职工养老保险基金收支平衡的管理和基金结余水平提供科学依据，为促进河南省城镇职工养老保险基金健康稳定地发展，促进了区域内养老基金的统筹性从而推动我国养老保险基金的全国统筹。
With the acceleration of the aging process of China’s population, China’s research in the urban staff and staff basic pension insurance has become a focus of attention, the number of urban staff, the coverage, already has the strong scale effect, so the research area (Henan province) urban staff basic pension insurance fund revenue and expenditure problems become an inevitable and important development trend. Research purpose: To forecast the income and expenditure of the basic pension insurance fund for urban workers in Henan Province in the next five years. Research methods: Based on the grey system theory, the relevant data of the income and expenditure of the basic pension insurance fund of urban employees in Henan Province from 2013 to 2021 were collected, and the GM(1,1) grey prediction model of the income and expenditure of the basic pension insurance fund of urban employees in Henan Province was established. Research results: In the next five years from 2022 to 2026, the income and expenditure scale of the basic pension insurance fund for urban workers in Henan Province will expand year by year. Research significance: To provide a scientific basis for the management of the balance of payments and fund balance of the regional employee pension insurance fund, to promote the healthy and stable development of the urban employee pension insurance fund in Henan province, to promote the overall planning of the regional pension fund and thus promote the national overall planning of China’s pension insurance fund.