京津冀城市群技术创新产出时空演化研究
Research on the Spatiotemporal Evolution of Technological Innovation Output in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban

以专利授权量为评价指标，运用探索性空间数据分析(ESDA)、变异系数、相对发展率(NICH)指数等方法，分析京津冀城市群技术创新产出的时空演化特征。结果显示：2005~2020年，城市群技术创新产出的集聚分异特征显著，总体上与区域空间格局的“一核、双城、三轴”相吻合，高值主要分布在京津地区，低值主要分布于京津冀西北和东南一带；技术创新产出的相关性并不紧密，区域内部创新分化严重，极化效应加强，产出水平从低水平均衡化逐渐变为高水平差异化，整体上形成了以北京为核心的H-L集群和冀北为代表的的L-H集群；此外，创新产出的增长演化特征明显，总体分布格局与产出区的集聚特征基本相同，相对发展率整体上稳步提升，但2015~2020年津保地区出现下滑态势。最后在实证分析的基础上，提出了科学建议。
Taking the number of patents granted as the evaluation index, and using ESDA, coefficient of variation, NICE index and other methods to analyze the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of technological innovation output of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration. The results show that from 2005 to 2020, the agglomeration and differentiation characteristics of technological innovation output of urban agglomerations are significant, which generally coincides with the region-al spatial pattern of “one core, two cities and three axes”, with high values mainly distributed in Beijing and Tianjin, and low values mainly distributed in the northwest and southeast of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. The correlation of technological innovation output is not close, the innovation differentiation within the region is serious, the polarization effect is strengthened, the output level gradually changes from low-level equilibrium to high-level differentiation, and the H-L cluster with Beijing as the core and the L-H cluster represented by northern Hebei have been formed as a whole. In addition, the growth and evolution characteristics of innovation output are obvious, the overall distribution pattern is basically the same as the agglomeration characteristics of the output area, and the relative development rate has steadily increased as a whole, but in the past five years, the Tianjin-Baoding area has shown a downward trend. Finally, on the basis of empirical analysis, scien-tific suggestions are put forward.