|
齐当别决策理论模型——决策本土化研究的智慧
|
Abstract:
本文对决策本土化的研究“齐当别理论”的具体内容和实际应用进行了脉络性的综述,齐当别理论作为描述性的决策理论,对风险决策中多种一般性违背决策公理或原则现象提出了质疑并给出自己的新阐释;齐当别理论从根本上摒弃了效用最大化原则,是一个进行非加权求和的过程,故称为非补偿性模型;齐当别理论作为一个在主流与非主流决策模型中验证并筛选实际指导人们进行风险决策的决策理论,对解释多种非风险决策的问题与现象和解决经济及社会领域的一些现实问题上具有很强的指导作用。齐当别理论将立足于探索风险决策中跨个体和领域的差异,了解文化因素对概率思维和风险偏好的影响,并在此基础上研究符合我国国情的风险决策理论;建立中国人风险决策行为的解释和预测模型,为正处于社会经济变革时期各级政府部门的科学决策提供心理科学的依据。
This paper reviewed the specific content and practical application of the research on “The Equate- to-Differentiate Decision Theory Model” of decision-making localization. As a descriptive decision theory, the Equate-to-Differentiate theory has questioned various general violations of decision axioms or principles in risk decision-making and given its new interpretation. The homogeneous farewell theory fundamentally abandons the principle of utility maximization. It is a process of making an unweighted sum. Therefore, it is called a non-compensatory model. Acting as a decision theory between mainstream and non-mainstream decision models, the Equate-to-Differentiate theory verifies, screens and guides people in risk decision making. It plays a strong guiding role in explaining the problems and phenomena of various non-risk decision-making and solving some practical problems in the economic and social fields. This theory will focus on exploring the cross-individual and field differences in risk decision-making, understanding the influence of cultural factors on probability thinking and risk preference, and studying the risk decision theory meeting China’s national conditions. The establishment of the interpretation and prediction model of Chinese risk decision-making behavior will provide a psychological scientific basis for scientific decision- making of government departments at all levels in the period of social and economic change.
[1] | 毕研玲, 李纾(2007). 有限理性的“占优启发式”和“齐当别”决策模型的作为——当Allais悖论杠杆撬动了期望效用理论. 心理科学进展, 15(4), 682-688. |
[2] | 李纾(2016). 决策心理: 齐当别之道. 华东师范大学出版社. |
[3] | 李纾, 毕研玲, 梁竹苑, 孙彦, 汪祚军, 郑蕊(2009). 无限理性还是有限理性?——齐当别抉择模型在经济行为中的应用. 管理评论, 21(5), 103-114. |
[4] | 刘燊, 甘烨彤(2021). 《应用心理学》四十年学术影响力以及我国应用心理学研究热点与发展趋势. 应用心理学, 27(3), 223-233. |
[5] | 刘长江(2016). 大道至简, 悟在天成——评李纾著《决策心理: 齐当别之道》. 心理技术与应用, 4(10), 637-640. |
[6] | 王霏(2016). 那书, 那人, 和那些研究——写于《决策心理: 齐当别之道》出版时. 心理与行为研究, 14(6), 859-860. |
[7] | 辛自强(2014). 经济心理学经典与前沿实验. 北京师范大学出版社. |
[8] | 徐富明, 李欧(2017). 齐差求辨出决策, 避繁就简成判断——《决策心理: 齐当别之道》读后. 应用心理学, 23(1), 92-96. |
[9] | 张书维(2016). 寻找理性边界, 打开决策黑箱——评《决策心理: 齐当别之道》. 公共行政评论, 9(5), 192-198. |
[10] | 郑昱(2016). 连接现实世界与理论世界的决策之美——评当代中国心理科学文库之《决策心理: 齐当别之道》. 心理学探新, 36(6), 574. |
[11] | Allais, M. (1953). Le Comportement de l’Homme Rationnel devant le Risque: Critique des Postulats et Axiomes de l’Ecole Americaine. Econometrica, 21, 503-546. https://doi.org/10.2307/1907921 |
[12] | Brandstatter, E., Gigerenzer, G., & Hertwig, R. (2006). The Priority Heuristic: Making Choices without Trade-Offs. Psychological Review, 113, 409-432. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-295X.113.2.409 |
[13] | Edwards, W. (1954). The Theory of Decision Making. Psychological Bulletin, 51, 380-417.
https://doi.org/10.1037/h0053870 |
[14] | Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk. Econometrica, 47, 263-291.
https://doi.org/10.2307/1914185 |
[15] | Kahneman, D., Slovic, P., & Tversky, A. (1982). Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511809477 |
[16] | Savage, L. J. (1954). The Foundations of Statistics. Wiley. |
[17] | Scholeten, M., & Read, D. (2010). The Psychology of Intertemporal Tradeoffs. Psychological Review, 117, 925-944.
https://doi.org/10.1037/a0019619 |
[18] | Simon, H. A. (1955). A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 69, 99-118.
https://doi.org/10.2307/1884852 |
[19] | Von Neumann, J., & Morgenstern, O. (1944). Theory of Games and Economic Behavior. Princeton University Press. |