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气象服务关键技术在三峡水资源开发利用中的应用
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Abstract:
三峡是我国重要的水利工程，加强三峡水资源开发利用的关键气象服务能力具有重要意义。针对三峡工程水资源开发利用需求，立足解决降水预报精细化程度和洪水预见期不够，气象预报与洪水预估结合度低等关键问题，通过开展零时刻至延伸期无缝隙的网格降水预报预测和水文气象耦合技术的研究与应用，建设并完善监测、预报、制作于一体的长江流域业务智能平台等方式，提升了长江流域定量降水预报、洪水天气预判、洪水风险预估的预报服务能力，为三峡水文资源调度计划决策提供了重要的技术支撑，带来了较为显著的社会经济效益。
Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) is an important water conservancy project in China. It is of great significance to strengthen the key techniques of meteorological service in water resources exploitation of TGR. Based on the demands of water resources development and utilization of TGR, the main task is to enhancing the level of prediction ability such as the precision of precipitation forecast, the prediction period of flood forecast, the combination of them and so on. Through the development of grid precipitation forecast technology from monitoring to extended period forecast, research and application of hydro meteorological coupling technology, development of integrated system for Yangtze River basin, building service mechanism, the capability of precipitation forecast, flood prediction and flood risk prediction in the Yangtze River basin has been improved. It provides an important technical support for the decision-making of the TGR dispatching plan and brings remarkable social and economic benefits.
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