Economic growth and industrialization often default
to a great dependency on fossil fuels (FF) to supply power needs. The carbon
rich nature of FF combustion can impact global warming. Therefore, it is
conducive to transition from FF to renewable energy (RE). The present study
aimed to address if replacement of a single FF by RE can mitigate carbon
emissions. We conduct the study in a country undergoing mass urbanization and
challenging energy demands. Data from energy resources
in the Power & Energy Sector Master Plan (PSMP2016; Bangladesh) are
analyzed over the 2017-2021 trajectory. Two scenarios for imports, oil and coal
are assessed. Environmental input output (E-IO) analysis and percentage equivalence analysis
measured data variables. The data is then further disaggregated into an
emission reduction (ER) model with sensitivity analysis to measure carbon emission reduction when each FF source is substituted by
RE. Results show the percentage share of energy
generation capacity by both coal and RE increase over time. Solar and wind
power contribute to the increase in RE. When oil is imported a 1% increase in
oil, coal, and gas-based energy generation capacity increases carbon emissions
by 1.25%, 1.48% and 0.93%, respectively. 1% increase in RE produces negligible
carbon emissions (0.0042%). There was little difference in the percentages of
carbon emissions when coal is imported. Substituting any FF with RE of equal
energy capacity does not, in the short term, reduce carbon emissions in either
scenario. Therefore, we conclude that for long term clean energy prospects in
Bangladesh, RE needs to be developed to operate at greater capacity in
conjunction with other carbon management factors. The research findings herein
offer insights for clean energy implementation in developing nations.
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