中国不动产投资信托基金(REITs)的潜在市场规模及发展意义研究
Study on the Potential Market Size and Development Significance of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) in China

随着我国房地产行业“去库存”、金融部门“去杠杆”等宏观经济政策的陆续出台，房地产行业逐步进入存量时代，如何推动国内不动产投资信托基金(REITs)市场建立成为学界的前沿问题。因此，本文以2012~2018年美国、日本、新加坡和香港等主要REITs市场的数据作为研究样本，采用国内外比较研究和建模定量分析的方法，根据重要经济金融指标对于REITs市场总市值和产品数量的影响，构建可以用于预测中国REITs市场理论规模的定量估值模型。研究发现：国内生产总值、上市公司总市值等经济金融指标都与REITs市场规模呈现显著的正相关关系。结论表明，我国具有发展REITs的巨大潜力，2018年中国REITs市场的理论市值约为1.9~2.6万亿元人民币，理论上可以存在60~90只REITs产品。本研究利用模型量化了我国发展不动产投资信托基金的潜在市场规模，阐明了发展REITs的重要意义，为我国今后建设一个良性竞争、有序发展的不动产投资信托基金市场提供了理论支持。
With the introduction of macroeconomic policies like “destocking” in China’s real estate industry and “deleveraging” in the financial sector, the real estate industry has gradually entered the in-ventory era, and the establishment of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) market has become a frontier issue in the academic field. Therefore, this paper takes the United States, Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong as major REITs market, collects data from 2012 to 2018 as the research sample, adopts the method of comparative study and modeling of quantitative analysis, and based on the correlation of economic or financial indicators and REITs market’s total capitalization and product quantity, build a model that can be used to make quantitative valuation on the potential scale of Chinese REITs market. It is found that economic and financial indicators such as GDP and the total market value of listed companies are significantly positively correlated with the size of REITs market. The conclusion shows that China has great potential to develop REITs. In 2018, the theoret-ical market value of China’s REITs market is about 1.9 to 2.6 trillion yuan, and 60 to 90 REITs prod-ucts can theoretically exist. This study develops the model to quantify the potential market size of REITs in China, expounds the important significance of developing REITs, and provides theoretical support for China to build a healthily-competing and orderly-developed real estate investment trusts market in the future.