水资源开发利用条件下的流域水循环研究

针对高强度水资源开发利用条件下流域水循环研究存在的问题，从认知、试验、理论、方法四个层次探讨了适应水资源开发利用条件的流域水循环的研究方法，构建了一个以水资源配置模型与水循环模型耦合为核心，以流域供需水分析和流域生态、环境、经济综合评价为响应的多目标调控模型。利用该模型，对黄河流域水资源进行了合理配置计算。结果表明，现状条件下黄河流域缺水严重；而在未来情境下缺水将更加严重，大力节水能够较大程度缓解缺水状况。 The paper expounded the problems on the watershed water cycle research with the high development and utilization of water resources. And on the basis of these problems, the paper discussed the watershed water cycle research methods to cope with the development and utilization of water resources from four levels of .perceive, experiments, theory and method. And it constructed a of the multi-objective control model that taking the water resources allocation and water cycle model coupling as the core, taking the watershed water supply and demand analysis and ecological, environmental and economic comprehensive evaluation as the response. The paper put the method into practice in the Yellow River, calculated the water resources rational allocation in the Yellow River with different water resources development and utilization condition. The results show that under the condition of current situation, the Yellow River basin suffer a serious water shortage, and it would be more terrible in the future, but the water saving can deeply alleviate water shortages. 国家重点基础研究发展973计划“气候变化对旱涝灾害的影响及风险评估”（2010C0CB951102）；国家自然科学基金资助项目“南水北调东线工程累积性水环境效应及调控机制研究”（51009150）